News   Apr 03, 2020
 7.3K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 7.5K     0 
News   Apr 02, 2020
 2.6K     0 

Edmonton's Population

Looks as though Alberta could be 4.6 million by year end.
Looks like we are already over 4.6 according to the real-time population clock program.

 
I predict that within the next 5 years Alberta will overtake British Columbia as the third most populated province in Canada
 
@EdmTrekker the chart shows Alberta's population gain for 4 months in 2022 (July -- October) at 58,203 which, when annualized, comes to 174,609. I believe that the migration to the province will only increase from there in subsequent years as the Alberta economy leads the way Nationally. If it simply matches 2022 by the end of 2027, the increase would be 873,045 for a population reading of 5,496,503 -- I believe that is going to prove to be a conservative number whereas the real projection will be closer to an average increase of 300,000 per year or 1,500,000 by the end of 2027 for a total of 6,123,458. By 2027 I believe BC's population will be just shy of 6 million, hence my prediction that Alberta will replace that province as the 3rd largest in Canada, population-wise. More predictions -- Edmonton will lead the population boom in real numbers with Calgary a close second. Other centres that will benefit with a strong increase will be Grande Prairie, Wood Buffalo, Cold Lake, Lloydminster and Red Deer. The near-suburb communities to Edmonton and Calgary will also see large increases. I also believe that Edmonton will overtake Calgary in the population count to become Canada's 4th largest city, nipping at the heels of Vancouver. (In the last census period Edmonton grew at a rate of 7.5%; Calgary at 5.3%; Vancouver at 4.9%). Red Deer will reach 130,000 (the same population that Edmonton had in 1949 so imagine what Red Deer will look like in 75 years from now); Grande Prairie will boom to 75,000; Wood Buffalo will begin to even out at 80,000; and Cold Lake will reach 25,000. Lloydminster will hit 40,000.
 
Last edited:
These are big numbers that will be coming, in part, to Edmonton and happening soon. It's already happening based on Q3 2022 Alberta stats.

Where are we going to see people live? Is multi family housing going to see lot more demand or is SFH still going to be housing of choice among majority? I think just under 50% of new residential is sfh now.

A lot of Edmonton multi family projects and vacant land are waiting on investors - I assume investors are seeing and forecasting this populatuon growth and hopefully will be getting their projects going soon to meet the demand?

A lot did get underway in 2022 - it would be great to have something similar happen in 2023.
 
I think 2023 will be a banner year for construction in Edmonton -- all sectors. There will be some bold new projects announced this upcoming year as well as re-emergence of some that have been awaiting better economic conditions post-covid. The Oliver district will continue to boom; Old Strathcona will heat up and see a number of new projects announced there; downtown will see a major resurgence. With a new Provincial government there will be a renewed focus on post-secondary education to the benefit of all of Edmonton's post-secondary institutions.
 
@EdmTrekker the chart shows Alberta's population gain for 4 months in 2022 (July -- October) at 58,203 which, when annualized, comes to 174,609. I believe that the migration to the province will only increase from there in subsequent years as the Alberta economy leads the way Nationally. If it simply matches 2022 by the end of 2027, the increase would be 873,045 for a population reading of 5,496,503 -- I believe that is going to prove to be a conservative number whereas the real projection will be closer to an average increase of 300,000 per year or 1,500,000 by the end of 2027 for a total of 6,123,458. By 2027 I believe BC's population will be just shy of 6 million, hence my prediction that Alberta will replace that province as the 3rd largest in Canada, population-wise. More predictions -- Edmonton will lead the population boom in real numbers with Calgary a close second. Other centres that will benefit with a strong increase will be Grande Prairie, Wood Buffalo, Cold Lake, Lloydminster and Red Deer. The near-suburb communities to Edmonton and Calgary will also see large increases. I also believe that Edmonton will overtake Calgary in the population count to become Canada's 4th largest city, nipping at the heels of Vancouver. (In the last census period Edmonton grew at a rate of 7.5%; Calgary at 5.3%; Vancouver at 4.9%). Red Deer will reach 130,000 (the same population that Edmonton had in 1949 so imagine what Red Deer will look like in 75 years from now); Grande Prairie will boom to 75,000; Wood Buffalo will begin to even out at 80,000; and Cold Lake will reach 25,000. Lloydminster will hit 40,000.
Grande Prairie is already 69,000.
 
I think the annual growth for Alberta was around 135,000 (according to StatsCan). Looking at Canada Census data, Edmonton grew at a faster percentage rate than Calgary. I’d estimate that the Calgary CMA grew by 55,,000, Edmonton CMA 50,000, other regional and rural centres 30,000,
 
Last edited:
Edmonton CMA includes St. Albert, Sherwood Park, Fort Saskatchewan, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain, Devon, Leduc and Beaumont.
Calgary CMA includes Airdrie, Crossfield, Cochrane, Chestermere, High River and Okotoks.
 
Good analysis here.

I think a lot of this will come down to federal immigration levels and whether we can get a handful of our mega projects underway.

If immigration levels continue higher as planned, you absolutely will see more and more people coming here from Ontario and elsewhere, drawn by cost of living and homeownership opportunities.

On top of that, if a few of the multi-billion dollar industrial projects get going, more people will be drawn here for work opportunities/economic opportunities.
 
Last edited:
I think that another factor that could help is if the high speed train between Edmonton, Red Deer and Calgary gets built. All of a sudden these three communities become a whole lot more incorporated to one another.
 
I'll be curious to see how the tug of war between higher construction costs, interest rates vs. increased migration to Alberta and Edmonton will play out. Seems like a lot of projects are on hold and cancelled...
 
Historically, Mortgage interest rates in Edmonton are not very high... and construction costs are beginning to fall. The problem is more one of perception than one of real data -- that will correct itself in the near term.
Mortgage Rates.png
 

Back
Top