Responding to a couple earlier comments I can't be bothered to dig out from a few pages back:
1. Skinner is a starting callibre goaltender: Skinner can be a starting callibre goaltender at times, he hasn't proved he can do it consistently yet. That doesn't mean he won't be in the future and being only a 2nd year pro he'll probably find it in the next couple seasons. The problem is, the Oilers don't have the time to wait for him, the rest of the core is here now and Connor and Leon's contracts both expire in the next 3 years. Anyone who thinks he's been starting callibre overall this season is kidding themselves. He's statistically been one of the worst goalies in the league, he has a good game every now and then but overall, he has not been good enough this season.
2. Defense is the Oilers main issue: This is simply not true, the Oilers defense is on the good end of average in the league in terms of preventing high danger chances against. Statistically speaking they don't give up more chances against than most other teams. The problem is... goaltending. On almost every goal against you can pick apart what the defense did wrong and could have done better, hockey is a game of mistakes. The team that makes less mistakes, generally speaking wins. The Oilers don't make more mistakes on average than most other teams. The issue is that more often than not those mistakes end up in the back of the net because the goaltending is not good enough to cover them up. If there was evidence the defense was "leaving the goalies out to dry", meaning giving up a inordinately high amount of good chances against, then it's a defensive problem. The stats don't support this hypothesis however. I'm not trying to suggest that the defense never makes mistakes, just that they're an above average defensive team that's getting made to look silly by poor goaltending. There is a culture in hockey of "never blame the goalie", and while this is true in some cases, the Oilers goalies deserve the bulk of the blame for their poor performance this year.
Skinner: 0.884 sv%, Pickard: 0.898 sv%
Oilers xGA (Expected Goals Against): 57.51 (Natural Stat Trick), good enough for 4th in the league, Oilers actual goals against: 67
You can keep saying the Oilers defense is the problem but the stats are not on your side here both old fashioned, and fancy advanced stats.
A stat that sums up the Oilers season quite well:
Shot Differential = +74
Goal Differential = -8
Which tells you everything you need to know, the Oilers are consistently outshooting and outplaying opponents, because their skating roster is actually the best in the league. But are losing due to poor goaltending at their end, and are getting stoned at the other by either bad luck or running into a hot goalie.
3: The Oilers won't make the playoffs for sure: I won't go out and guarantee they will make it, however I have a few good reasons why I think it's silly to count them out at this point.
1 - They have (statistically once again) had the hardest start in the league, playing on average the toughest opponents and as a result have the easiest remaining schedule. Same as last year.
2 - They have been exceedingly unlucky (historically so), that's bound to turn around at some point.
3 - The goalies have been awful, but they've gotten better lately and played well over the 8 game streak. They don't need someone to go out and win them a game alone, the skating roster is good enough to do that themselves. They just need to be semi-competent, and the Oilers will start winning a lot.
4 - They are 3 and 9 in their last 12, it looks not great that the last 3 losses came back to back, but that's a 0.750 winning percentage, which is pretty darn good.
5 - The team's they're trying to catch aren't wagons. Nashville, Arizona, St Louis, Calgary, etc in the Western Conference wildcard race are not really great teams. They have decent records (hence why they're in playoff spots), but none of those teams is going to run away. If the Oilers keep playing the way they have and the goaltending takes a step forward, maybe a couple more pucks end up in the net. They should be able to pass all of those teams quite easily.
Last nights game:
Oilers were the better team and deserved to win, probably didn't deserve to be down at all in that one. They were getting stoned in the 2nd period. Then in the 3rd a combination of perplexing positioning from Vanacek and some truly awful turnovers by the Devil's defense (particularly Luke Hughes), led to an explosion in the third. I don't want to discount the Oilers as they played quite well and definitely deserved this one, but truthfully this was a total collapse by the Devils, they were absolutely terrible in the 3rd.
