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Prognostication is Free

archited

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I predict that, with COVID and its ilk becoming normalized and work-from-home becoming a "thing", more people will choose to settle in rural small towns where larger residential plots will allow them to become "hobby-farmers" raising specialty pets such as mini-horses, -cows, -donkeys; exotic chickens, ducks and pheasants; mini-pigs, -goats, -sheep; and other rare and uncommon animals. This new trend will create a boon for Edmonton as a service centre to small towns and a boon to small towns that bring to life heretofore unnoticed names such as Carbondale, Excelsior, and New Lunnon (look them up). People will also be looking to buy up lakefront property to enjoy convertible house-boat living whereby they can be adrift in the summer and moored to a pier in the winter. Off-grid enablers include Hydrogen Fuel Cells, Solar and Wind Energy; StarLink WiFi; Gray water and black water repurposing; water delivery companies; electricity battery management systems; high-tech foundation systems; all-form technology innovation systems and the growth of K-12 elhi distance education systems and post-secondary systems that are already in place (Athabasca U.). Hey folks -- there are lots of new business opportunities wrapped up in this prediction -- not everybody wants to live next door to the disco.
 

kcantor

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true enough that not everyone wants to live next door to the disco but not everyone wants to live in a small town or in a predominantly rural setting.

as someone who grew up in a small town, i can relate to that, as i can relate to not wanting to be that far from healthcare and services and completely dependent on private vehicles etc.
 

Gronk!

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My prognostications:
- Edmonton is the hydrogen capital of Canada
- Edmonton is a hi-tech powerhouse
- Hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup games will truly put Edmonton on the international map moreso than the Winter Olympics in 1988
- The Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup during the McDavid/Draisaitl era and the first Cup win in Canada since 1993
- ICE District phase 2 (north of Rogers Place) is open
- Amarjeet Sohi is Mayor of Edmonton for 3 terms until he steps down in favor of Ashley Salvador
- EIA attracts and retains non-stop flights to London (Gatwick), Frankfurt, Amsterdam, New York City, Hong Kong and Tokyo
- EIA has a 3rd runway
- The Valley Line West LRT, Capital Line LRT South expansion and Metro Line North LRT are completed
- Yellowhead Freeway Conversion project is completed
- 102 Ave closure in favor of bike/pedestrian traffic is a big tourist attraction along with revamps of City Centre Mall and Manulife Place
- New hotels have sprung up on the Tower 101, Urban China and Alldritt sites
- Warehouse District Park, which includes the Nathan Fillion Civilian Pavilion, is a major tourist draw
- Falcon, The Parks, Shift and other condo/rent towers are ready to own or rent
- SW hospital is operational and is a major health/medical hub
- The Quarters, Blatchford, Stadium Yards and Rossdale are 4 powerful new neighborhoods
- Commonwealth Stadium and Rogers Place continue to attract major touring acts along with RE/MAX Field, Edmonton Expo Centre and other concert venues
- Bike lane network is a major success
- Rossdale Plant is a central hub for the river valley c/w cafes, resto-bars and an indigenous museum
- A National Urban Park is declared for the ribbon of green from Fort Saskatchewan to Devon
- The river valley from Rossdale to Government House is a major tourist draw after the completion of the Touch The Water project
- The gondola and McDougall Hill pedestrian overpass are fully operational
- The Accidental Beach is a huge draw
- A water taxi system carries passengers from Hermitage Park to Terwillegar Park
- The Edmonton Riverboat is extended to Hawrelak Park and the Accidental Beach
- RAM, Telus World of Science and AGA continue to showcase major exhibits
- Highway 19 is extended from the QE2 east to Beaumont and Highway 21
- Highway 19 is twinned from the QE2 west to Devon
- Ray Gibbon Drive becomes the new Highway 2 from north of St. Albert

Did I miss anything?
 
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TAS

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My prognostications:
- Edmonton is the hydrogen capital of Canada
- Edmonton is a hi-tech powerhouse
- Hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup games will truly put Edmonton on the international map moreso than the Winter Olympics in 1988
- The Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup during the McDavid/Draisaitl era and the first Cup win in Canada since 1993
- ICE District phase 2 (north of Rogers Place) is open
- Amarjeet Sohi is Mayor of Edmonton for 3 terms until he steps down in favor of Ashley Salvador
- EIA attracts and retains non-stop flights to London (Gatwick), Frankfurt, Amsterdam, New York City, Hong Kong and Tokyo
- EIA has a 3rd runway
- The Valley Line West LRT, Capital Line LRT South expansion and Metro Line North LRT are completed
- Yellowhead Freeway Conversion project is completed
- 102 Ave closure in favor of bike/pedestrian traffic is a big tourist attraction along with revamps of City Centre Mall and Manulife Place
- New hotels have sprung up on the Tower 101, Urban China and Alldritt sites
- Warehouse District Park, which includes the Nathan Fillion Civilian Pavilion, is a major tourist draw
- Falcon, The Parks, Shift and other condo/rent towers are ready to own or rent
- SW hospital is operational and is a major health/medical hub
- The Quarters, Blatchford, Stadium Yards and Rossdale are 4 powerful new neighborhoods
- Commonwealth Stadium and Rogers Place continue to attract major touring acts along with RE/MAX Field, Edmonton Expo Centre and other concert venues
- Bike lane network is a major success
- Rossdale Plant is a central hub for the river valley c/w cafes, resto-bars and an indigenous museum
- A National Urban Park is declared for the ribbon of green from Fort Saskatchewan to Devon
- The river valley from Rossdale to Government House is a major tourist draw after the completion of the Touch The Water project
- The gondola and McDougall Hill pedestrian overpass are fully operational
- The Accidental Beach is a huge draw
- A water taxi system carries passengers from Hermitage Park to Terwillegar Park
- The Edmonton Riverboat is extended to Hawrelak Park and the Accidental Beach
- RAM, Telus World of Science and AGA continue to showcase major exhibits
- Highway 19 is extended from the QE2 east to Beaumont and Highway 21
- Highway 19 is twinned from the QE2 west to Devon
- Ray Gibbon Drive becomes the new Highway 2 from north of St. Albert

Did I miss anything?

Nice list, and...
What becomes of the Coliseum and the exhibition lands?
What's our population?
Lrt out to airport?
High Speed Rail to Calgary?
Is Icelandair back flying out of EIA?
What about homelessness?
Who's our premier?
What about an e-bike share program?
Are we on track or better for net zero emissions?
Are we leading the country in EV sales or hydrogen fueled vehicles per capita?
Does our next PM have a connection to Edmonton?
 

ChazYEG

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Nice list, and...
What becomes of the Coliseum and the exhibition lands?
What's our population?
Lrt out to airport?
High Speed Rail to Calgary?
Is Icelandair back flying out of EIA?
What about homelessness?
Who's our premier?
What about an e-bike share program?
Are we on track or better for net zero emissions?
Are we leading the country in EV sales or hydrogen fueled vehicles per capita?
Does our next PM have a connection to Edmonton?
- LRT gets built all the way to the brand new Terminal 3 (International) at EIA
- HSR is completed with stops in downtown Calgary, YEG and Downtown Edmonton, for logistical reasons, helping YEG get even more passengers.
- We get new flights to Rejkiavic, Paris and Rome, in addition to the ones already mentioned.
- We got rid of the UCP and Notley ties in 3 terms straight as Premier, working well with Mayor Sohi and the newly elected PM Chrystia Freeland to make huge leaps towards ending homelessness in Edmonton, and Alberta in general.
- Edmonton manages do become a carbon neutral city by 2040, before the Canadian target, including having a full fleet of electric and hydrogen powered busses and an extensive e-bike share network.
- Edmonton hits 2 million in 2035, a full 5 years ahead of expectations, and 2.5 million by 2040.
- the Coliseum is bought by an industrial tycoon, who pays off the non-compete clause with Katz and repurposes it as a major Olympic training centre for high performing athletes, as well as hosting the games for a new NBA team.
 

archited

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I predict that by the year 2030 all car manufacturers will be out of the production of internal combustion engine powered autos completely and all cars will be electrically powered, the power sources individually coming from solar panels, wind panels and hydrogen fuel cells (pick up the pace Edmonton and Alberta). Gas stations will close at an ever-quickening rate (I have one client now who is changing over to electric right now with two stations that he owns) and will be a complete rarity in 9 years. Heavy duty trucks, semis, buses and motor homes will have largely converted to hydrogen fuel cell propulsion systems. Motorcycle riders who like to hear the roar of their engines will have to rig popsicle sticks on their wheel spokes to generate noise.
 

McEdmonton

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My prognostications:
- Edmonton is the hydrogen capital of Canada
- Edmonton is a hi-tech powerhouse
- Hosting the 2026 FIFA World Cup games will truly put Edmonton on the international map moreso than the Winter Olympics in 1988
- The Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup during the McDavid/Draisaitl era and the first Cup win in Canada since 1993
- ICE District phase 2 (north of Rogers Place) is open
- Amarjeet Sohi is Mayor of Edmonton for 3 terms until he steps down in favor of Ashley Salvador
- EIA attracts and retains non-stop flights to London (Gatwick), Frankfurt, Amsterdam, New York City, Hong Kong and Tokyo
- EIA has a 3rd runway
- The Valley Line West LRT, Capital Line LRT South expansion and Metro Line North LRT are completed
- Yellowhead Freeway Conversion project is completed
- 102 Ave closure in favor of bike/pedestrian traffic is a big tourist attraction along with revamps of City Centre Mall and Manulife Place
- New hotels have sprung up on the Tower 101, Urban China and Alldritt sites
- Warehouse District Park, which includes the Nathan Fillion Civilian Pavilion, is a major tourist draw
- Falcon, The Parks, Shift and other condo/rent towers are ready to own or rent
- SW hospital is operational and is a major health/medical hub
- The Quarters, Blatchford, Stadium Yards and Rossdale are 4 powerful new neighborhoods
- Commonwealth Stadium and Rogers Place continue to attract major touring acts along with RE/MAX Field, Edmonton Expo Centre and other concert venues
- Bike lane network is a major success
- Rossdale Plant is a central hub for the river valley c/w cafes, resto-bars and an indigenous museum
- A National Urban Park is declared for the ribbon of green from Fort Saskatchewan to Devon
- The river valley from Rossdale to Government House is a major tourist draw after the completion of the Touch The Water project
- The gondola and McDougall Hill pedestrian overpass are fully operational
- The Accidental Beach is a huge draw
- A water taxi system carries passengers from Hermitage Park to Terwillegar Park
- The Edmonton Riverboat is extended to Hawrelak Park and the Accidental Beach
- RAM, Telus World of Science and AGA continue to showcase major exhibits
- Highway 19 is extended from the QE2 east to Beaumont and Highway 21
- Highway 19 is twinned from the QE2 west to Devon
- Ray Gibbon Drive becomes the new Highway 2 from north of St. Albert

Did I miss anything?
These predictions look amazing! Are they meant to happen by a specific year or just anytime in the future?
 

archited

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They will come about at various times in the future.

This article is from the New York Times and I have added comments in italics (thinking of how this might apply to Edmonton).

What will the world be like in 20 years? By Andrew Ross Sorkin

“Demographics are destiny.”
It is a phrase, often attributed to the French philosopher Auguste Comte, that suggests much of the future is preordained by the very simple trend lines of populations. Want to understand how the power dynamic between the United States and China will change over the next 20 years? An economist would tell you to look at the demographics of both countries. (China’s economy is likely to overtake the U.S. economy by 2028, but remain smaller on a per-capita basis.)
Want to know how much lithium we’re going to need to mine to make batteries over the next 20 years? Demographics will most likely provide the answer. (We are likely to need 13 to 42 times the amount we currently use, according to the International Energy Agency.) Note here that Alberta recently benefited from news of drilling for liquid brine that contains lithium -- another positive industry with very little environmental impact. And on and on.
Predicting the future may be a fool’s errand. But using demographic data to assess the opportunities and challenges of the next two decades is something that business and political leaders don’t do enough. We’re all too swept up in the here and now (some names on the Skyrise Cities site will come to mind), the next quarter and the next year.
Of course, demographics can’t spot pandemics or other crises. But as seismic as they feel in the moment, such events are rare.
When DealBook began publishing 20 years ago, after 9/11, prognosticators suggested that travel might be reduced forever. It is true that air travel may have changed forever after the attacks, but within months growth in air travel was back on track. Why? Demographics. More people around the world had more disposable income and increasingly chose to live closer to cities with greater access to airports. That, married with the human condition that people like to be around other people, makes forecasting certain elements of the future almost mathematical.
One aspect of the future that demographics can’t help predict are technological innovations. But even technological innovations have a slower impact on the day-to-day than we sometimes appreciate. Peter Thiel famously said in 2013: “We wanted flying cars. Instead we got 140 characters.”

So what comes next? If you woke up 20 years from now in 2041, what would be different? Here are some ideas based on numbers that don’t require a crystal ball.
About 70 percent of the world population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, according to data from the United Nations.
That means most cities are going to need more infrastructure. Roads, public transportation and waste management will need massive expansion and upgrades. The average person produces 4.9 pounds of waste a day, up from 3.66 pounds in 1980. But here’s a trend going in the other direction as a result of technology: Paper and paperboard declined from 87.7 million tons in 2000 to 67.4 million tons in 2018, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
We’re also going to need a lot more energy.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will need about 28 percent more energy in 2040 than it did in 2015 based on the number of people in the country and consumption patterns; on our current trajectory, about 42 percent of electricity in the United States will come from renewable sources. Here is where Alberta's Hydrogen Economy will fit in -- we should be focused on this like a laser beam!
Where will that electricity get produced? Solar power could be produced on largely unpopulated land masses and transported to population centers, an idea Elon Musk raised about China five years ago. China has “an enormous land area, much of which is hardly occupied at all,” he said, noting that most of China’s population is concentrated in coastal cities. “So you could easily power all of China with solar.”
Another trend that, like increasing energy needs, isn’t new and isn’t going away: on-demand everything. Technology has led us to expect that goods and services will be delivered at the push of a button, often within minutes. That could transform real estate, especially space in cities that is currently used for retail. As companies work toward instant deliveries, they’ll need to warehouse items closer and closer to customers. Real estate investors are already contemplating how to create mini-warehouses on every block. And the density of people in cities is likely to affect the farming and delivery of food. To get fresh produce to customers quickly, vertical farming — in indoor, controlled environments — could move from being the dream of some start-ups to a new reality (Another Trend that Edmonton could lead in -- especially considering the local climate).
And we’ll be older. In the United States, we’re likely to live until 82.4 years old, compared with the current life expectancy of 79.1 years, the United Nations forecasts. That’s a good thing for health care companies and others that cater to older people. But living three extra years is going to be more expensive, which will have implications for both working and saving. According to the Urban Institute, government “projections indicate that there will be 2.1 workers per Social Security beneficiary in 2040, down from 3.7 in 1970.”
 
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archited

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^^^^ What a cool idea @Glenco -- now imagine that, if instead of concrete blocks, cranes were lifting homeless pods up and down and there was a way to create elevators to those pods that also operated on the same principle (LSM motors) -- double function batteries and free housing for the needy.
 

JaayJR

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I have been saying this to people for a while. If Edmonton plays this decade right, they will receive a population boom around 2030. People should keep an eye on whats happening here.

My theory:
Toronto and Vancouver are gonna become so unaffordable for this next generation growing up seeking independence that they will move just to have a shot, yet a majority of those people will still seek a major city.
Why Edmonton and not Calgary? Theyre both fairly affordable. Calgary will still grow, but not as fast. Calgary was built to accomodate and bring people to their downtown (look at the greenline). I personally believe the city is overbuilt for 1.5 M people therefore they have alot of empty space to fill. It is also a very sprawled with tons of space to expand also so im interested to see how that plays out for new families buying a home.

Luckily with yeg the city plan (its a start) it connects people to where they live with the "15 minute city" plans. This will help slow sprawl and commuting hell. With the EMTSC, becoming Edmontons "Translink" it will be a very interconnected city with multiple nodes of transportation and our train lines connect people to hospitals, post secondary, major employment nodes, other cities etc. We also have proximity to 5 national parks. Post Covid puts this in Edmontons favor.
With our core being underdeveloped (thanks YXD) This provides new development for parking lots to build a downtown / core region of tomorrow where people live and play then work and not the downtown of yesterday.
The city just needs to fix the houselessness issue first as its hindering devopment. But I believe this may turn around by ~2026
All of this while being the most affordable city in North America definitely gives Metro Edmonton an advantage. Also being the progressive city of Alberta helps slightly.

Edmonton 2030, I truly believe this.
 

archited

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I could see City Council Adding two more jurisdictions by dividing Ward 6 into three parcels -- Downtown, Oliver and Glenora -- each having distinct interests one from the other and expanded populations looking into the future.
 

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