I also wonder if some of our neighborhood family stage cycles are hurting transit use? This is mostly anecdotal. But when I grew up, it was all the inner henday suburbs (terwillegar, millwoods. Gariepy, etc) and those places weren’t great for transit, but you could get to Strathcona, Jasper Place, Wagner, UpfA, Macewan, etc in 50-80 minutes.
But now, many of those neighborhoods are more empty nesters and adult children, or some are seeing younger families move back in, but still years away from kids using transit. And it’s the new suburbs of rosenthal, windemere, summerside, walker etc that have more kids going to high school and uni. But those places are so much tougher for transit. Anecdotally, I know more people driving to uni from those suburbs vs transiting.
Some of that might change with new LRT extensions. But still, 75% of our growth has been in areas poorly built for transit and far from existing train lines or frequent central lines. No surprise usage has dropped.