News   Apr 03, 2020
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Edmonton's Population

We had at least 2 years advanced warning that this was going to hit us next, Calgary seems less and less attractive now based on the affordability stories coming out of there.

I honestly hope we're ready for it, ZBR wise. This is probably the ultimate test for us.

On the upside, probably means that projects in the core are much more attractive now.
 
Kinda sorta. Demand is growing, but the cost to service debt + construction costs + low saleable $/sqft = stalled projects and supply.
 
While Calgary was the winner more recently, I wonder if Edmonton could be picking up steam.

"Edmonton was the top choice for current residents of the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas thinking about a move. Alberta’s capital city was the most attractive and affordable destination for 19 per cent of respondents from these markets in the poll."

Also: https://www.royallepage.ca/en/reale...-move-to-more-affordable-real-estate-markets/

Half of residents in Canada’s largest urban centres eyeing move to more affordable real estate markets​

Quebec City and Edmonton top choices for relocation; cost of living and proximity to nature among driving factors

Highlights:


  • Thunder Bay tops the list of most affordable cities in Canada
  • Of the 15 most affordable cities in Canada, four are located in the province of Quebec and four in the Atlantic provinces; no British Columbia cities made the list
  • 54% of respondents in the Greater Montreal Area, 51% in the Greater Toronto Area and 45% in Greater Vancouver would consider relocating to one of the most affordable cities
  • Quebec City is the most popular destination among respondents in Greater Montreal, while Edmonton is the top-ranking choice among Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver residents
  • Renters are more likely than owners to consider relocating based on housing affordability
  • Besides home prices, lower cost of living is the most popular reason to consider relocating, followed by a desire for proximity to nature and a more relaxed lifestyle".

Affordable_Cities-rlp-EN.jpg
 
While Calgary was the winner more recently, I wonder if Edmonton could be picking up steam.

"Edmonton was the top choice for current residents of the Greater Toronto and Vancouver areas thinking about a move. Alberta’s capital city was the most attractive and affordable destination for 19 per cent of respondents from these markets in the poll."

Edmonton was outgrowing calgary on a percent basis pre pandemic
 
On the upside, probably means that projects in the core are much more attractive now.
I'd be careful with this optimism. I am working with a number of newcomers to Edmonton from Toronto, they are explicitly coming because they want the SFH suburban dream they can't get in Ontario. These aren't urbanists looking to live in the core. This is further evidenced by how depressed the downtown condo market is even while the SFH market is insanely hot.
 
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I'd be careful with this optimism. I am working with a number of newcomers to Edmonton from Toronto, they are explicitly coming because they want the SFH suburban dream they can't get in Ontario. These aren't urbanist looking to live in the core. This is further evidenced by how depressed the downtown condo market is even while the SFH market is insanely hot.
That's disappointing but also makes sense given what's been marketed. I'm hoping at least some of them end up getting an infill instead in the future.
 
I do get the sense that more people outside of Alberta are realizing there is one major Alberta city that is still fairly affordable and one that is not as affordable any more. I am not at all surprised by this and have been expecting this for the last while.

The big questions for us are how this will affect growth and affordability here in the future. I suspect we will have even more population growth than in the recent past and the rent/housing price gap between Edmonton and Calgary, which has become unusually large in the last while, will start to narrow some.
 
I'd be careful with this optimism. I am working with a number of newcomers to Edmonton from Toronto, they are explicitly coming because they want the SFH suburban dream they can't get in Ontario. These aren't urbanist looking to live in the core. This is further evidenced by how depressed the downtown condo market is even while the SFH market is insanely hot.
Little do they know how dense some of our new suburbs are!!
 
I'd be careful with this optimism. I am working with a number of newcomers to Edmonton from Toronto, they are explicitly coming because they want the SFH suburban dream they can't get in Ontario. These aren't urbanist looking to live in the core. This is further evidenced by how depressed the downtown condo market is even while the SFH market is insanely hot.
It is all connected - the people who start to get priced out of the insanely hot SFH market and are concerned about rapidly rising rents will become condo buyers, as has happened elsewhere. We're not there yet, but this is a very predictable outcome if things continue as is.
 
It is all connected - the people who start to get priced out of the insanely hot SFH market and are concerned about rapidly rising rents will become condo buyers, as has happened elsewhere. We're not there yet, but this is a very predictable outcome if things continue as is.
Or fuel a market for 1200 sqr foot row houses.
 
Even if the demand is single family homes, we’ve got much more permissive zoning, and that lets us become a city of options. Diversity in cheaper housing means you’ve got choices for lifestyle and stage of life.

Edmonton is nice since you can live that urbanist dream in a few neighborhoods and at a much lower cost than staying in Vancouver, and you can own a home for you and your kids for much less than the GTA.
 
Even if the demand is single family homes, we’ve got much more permissive zoning, and that lets us become a city of options. Diversity in cheaper housing means you’ve got choices for lifestyle and stage of life.

Edmonton is nice since you can live that urbanist dream in a few neighborhoods and at a much lower cost than staying in Vancouver, and you can own a home for you and your kids for much less than the GTA.
Completely agree. And this is why I don't take a lot of stock in the doomers that like to criticize everything about Edmonton. The fact of the matter is that the value proposition here is incredible and the city provides choices that are totally unavailable in other places in Canada unless you are super-wealthy. Hopefully the city can hang onto its affordability for as long as possible.
 

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