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Edmonton Real Estate Market

IanO

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You can click the link and dive into the Edmonton market stats if you want to learn more.
 

BASE

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This is an interesting data point. I like to look at the total units under construction. As for the starts it does look like from Nov-Jan Edmonton was down more from Calgary than compared to usual. This might be random in the slower build season anyways or could be more starts were pushed through in Calgary due to the price growth and strong rents they were seeing.

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Statistics Canada. Table 34-10-0154-01 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions in selected census metropolitan areas, monthly
 

IanO

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Thomas Chibri, CFA
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Vice President | National Investment Team | CBRE Limited
1d • 1 day ago

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The rental universe in Edmonton is ~88,000 units (79,000 apartments and 9,000 townhomes). If we review the recent CMHC Rental Market Report (current to October 2022), you will note Edmonton absorbed over 5,100 units, while only adding 3,000 units. This net positive absorption led to vacancy rates dropping to 4.3% for apartments and 2.1% for townhomes.

One concern we consistently hear from groups is the very predictable new supply pipeline and its overall effect on the market. Through October 2022, Edmonton’s population grew by ~33,000 people. If we look at full 2022 numbers, Edmonton’s population grew by just under 40,000 people. As of October 2022, there were just under 3,600 vacant units available for rent in Edmonton. As of December 31, 2022, you can believe the trend of shrinking vacancy continued.

1676653167336

 

edm13

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Thomas Chibri, CFA
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Vice President | National Investment Team | CBRE Limited
1d • 1 day ago

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Connect with Thomas Chibri, CFA
The rental universe in Edmonton is ~88,000 units (79,000 apartments and 9,000 townhomes). If we review the recent CMHC Rental Market Report (current to October 2022), you will note Edmonton absorbed over 5,100 units, while only adding 3,000 units. This net positive absorption led to vacancy rates dropping to 4.3% for apartments and 2.1% for townhomes.

One concern we consistently hear from groups is the very predictable new supply pipeline and its overall effect on the market. Through October 2022, Edmonton’s population grew by ~33,000 people. If we look at full 2022 numbers, Edmonton’s population grew by just under 40,000 people. As of October 2022, there were just under 3,600 vacant units available for rent in Edmonton. As of December 31, 2022, you can believe the trend of shrinking vacancy continued.

1676653167336

Seems to me that we are on the verge of rents taking off, if this trend continues.
 

soupcrate

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northlands

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Good change. The higher tax rate was just taking advantage of group that wasn't looking (renters).
You think so? Are there that many proformas that now suddenly make sense with this property tax shift that we're going to see a boom in multifamily construction? They already admit there will be zero savings passed along to renters outside of the possibility of bringing more product to the market.

Frankly, this sounds like a regressive policy that shifts tax burden from big property ownership groups to private citizens (all while in a budget/revenue crunch??) all for some idea of "equity".
 

Hugh Jazz

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Bringing more purpose built rental product to market is a big deal. Incentivizing new purpose built rental in more diverse forms is (in my opinion) the real end goal of this. Sure, owners of existing multifamily properties will get to pad their pockets a bit more in the short-medium term, but in the long term, this should open up the door to more medium density multifamily rental along with the high density purpose built type of product we already see. This is a good tool to facilitate the overall density goals laid out in the new city plan as well as integrate with the upcoming changes to the zoning bylaw.

Also it was a dumb tax in the first place.
 

IanO

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^this.

Great to see and about time.

Now let's turn our collective attention to the imbalance with Offsite Levies to help further incentivize urban growth, more efficiently use existing infrastructure and properly allocate growth costs on the periphery of our cities.
 

northlands

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Bringing more purpose built rental product to market is a big deal. Incentivizing new purpose built rental in more diverse forms is (in my opinion) the real end goal of this. Sure, owners of existing multifamily properties will get to pad their pockets a bit more in the short-medium term, but in the long term, this should open up the door to more medium density multifamily rental along with the high density purpose built type of product we already see. This is a good tool to facilitate the overall density goals laid out in the new city plan as well as integrate with the upcoming changes to the zoning bylaw.

Also it was a dumb tax in the first place.
If the goal is propel more purpose built rental construction, why not have incentives more geared toward multifamily new project construction like the development property tax relief of 2021? Just make it purpose built rentals next.

The vast majority of benefit for this policy will be large portfolio bottomlines at the expense of middle class homeowners all for the hope that it maybe moves the needle the slightest bit on new project construction.
 

ChazYEG

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If the goal is propel more purpose built rental construction, why not have incentives more geared toward multifamily new project construction like the development property tax relief of 2021? Just make it purpose built rentals next.

The vast majority of benefit for this policy will be large portfolio bottomlines at the expense of middle class homeowners all for the hope that it maybe moves the needle the slightest bit on new project construction.
There are a few sides on this new tax policy:

1 - indeed, it will not benefit anyone but these large portfolio owners in the short term, but at the same time, it doesn't make any sense to charge more taxes on purpose built rentals than condos that are similar in size and location, as pointed out in the article. There's really no argument for that, Regardless os who owns it.

2 - in the long term it can certainly help spur some mid/high density development, especially in areas where we can see lower scale developments happening. An 8 or 12 unit low rise purpose built rental in mature neighborhoods might become very attractive, whereas it is a lot less, today.

3 - while it might not mean a reduction in rent for current renters, it certainly has the potential to keep the lease rates lower, especially in the short term, as we're about to experience a crunch in supply of these in the next few years.
 

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