"Experts" are heavily favoring the Stars in this series (according to Edmonton Journal over 80%).
I understand that they are seen as the favorites but 80% seems harsh and not very realistic. Most are predicting we're gonna get squashed like we did against Colorado in 22. Putting all of my Oilers bias aside I can see why the Stars are the favorites and I think I would favor them at about 55% chance of winning the series.
Here's how I see it:
Offense: Even, but both teams generate offense very differently. If Dallas can shut down our top 2 lines, we might be in trouble, but I don't think their defense is good enough that Connor and Leon are going to suddenly stop scoring a ton. Dallas does not have the top end talent that the Oilers do, but are much more likely to get offense from farther down their line up and the top scorers aren't bad either. I'm calling this one a draw.
Defense: Oilers have the edge. The Stars D core is by no means bad or weak, but the Oilers is better. When comparing pairing by pairing: Ekholm - Bouchard > Harley - Heiskanen, Nurse - Ceci < Lindell - Tanev, Kulak - Desharnais > Suter - Petrovic. Ekholm and Bouchard are the best pairing in the league while Harley and Heiskanen are decent, but not one of the better top pairings out there, Lindell and Tanev are better both offensively and defensively than Nurse and Ceci, but Kulak and Desharnais are better than Suter and Petrovic. The Stars have the weakest defense of the Final 4, having got this far it is not a bad defense, but it's not one of the stronger ones out there either.
Goaltending: Dallas has the edge, but with an asterisk. Oettinger is more established and more of a household name than Skinner at this point, but both goalies are prone to inconsistent play. They actually had the exact same sv% in the regular season this year, .905. Skinner was the better goalie this season if you believe the advanced stats. Oettinger has had a much better playoffs so far, with a .918 sv% to Skinner sub .880.
If Skinner can turn it around, and Oettinger has one of his (not entirely out of character) drops in play, this could turn into an Oiler advantage. I wouldn't bet on it, but it's a fact that not many analysts are bringing up about this series.
So overall, I give the Stars the edge, but not by a ton. There's not near as much of a gap between these teams as many would lead you to believe. I think the depth advantage of Dallas over Edmonton is being exaggerated significantly. They are definitely deeper, but this is not the Oiler team of 2-3 years ago. The depth may have disappeared at times in the Vancouver series, but it also had big moments and came in clutch towards the latter part series with strong defensive play and keeping the puck in the other team's end even if they don't generate too many chances or score. Likewise, the goaltending advantage for Dallas is a bit iffy as well. I would say Skinner is far more likely to play bad and cost his team a game or two than Otter, but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Oettinger ends up with a sub 900 sv% in this series going against the Oilers high powered offense with the Stars slightly weaker defense core.
Many insiders are not giving us much of a chance at all, and I think that's just silly.
www.espn.com
