Edmonchuk
Active Member
And how again is it different from my personal observations of occupied seats on the plane?
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Edmonton International Airport (EIA/YEG)
- Thread starter Daveography
- Start date
And how again is it different from my personal observations of occupied seats on the plane?
Acey
Active Member
I have the total number of pax flown and total capacity over that timeframe. You're saying your data point of 3 flights is more encompassing than 100+ flights? I can just as easily cherry pick 3 YEG-AMS flights since August with very poor LF and tell you that your "YEG flights are packed" claim is wrong. 3-4 flights is just not enough data points to make any kind of conclusion. Further, I think the more significant and interesting data point is the second paragraph of my post, and also how well YEG-AMS is doing relative to other Western Canada-Europe flights in terms of LF, because we can then collectively draw some vague conclusions based on fares offered at that time.
In this case, your anecdotal observations of the LF supports the actual LF - but there is an unusually high standard deviation of LF for YEG-AMS for some reason meaning singular observations are more likely to not give you the whole picture.
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Edmonchuk
Active Member
You have data for 100+ flights? Give me a break, KLM doesn’t even fly direct from Edm to Amster that often.
Just FYI, this is how you do it in audit. You SAMPLE!
Acey
Active Member
I said back to August 1 just guessing as I didn't think I'd be challenged at that data point, it's further than that - it's the last 100 times the flight operated. At 3 times a week, that's about 12 flights a month, so it takes about 8 months for YEG-AMS to operate 100 times. Does that math work okay for you?
Well yeah, but the margin of error would be wild, to the degree that you might as well dismiss the data given the aforementioned standard deviation, with a subset of only 3 data points when the total population is 100+. As I just said, I could "sample" the 3 lowest YEG-AMS, not tell you that they're the lowest, and reach the conclusion that YEG-AMS is performing poorly based on my sample of 3 flights. The complete data with 0% margin of error is obviously going to be more accurate and the data from which conclusions should be drawn. The full data supports your observation; YEG-AMS is doing well and I'm sure other posters are happy with the fact that the full numbers support your observation. Not sure what the issue is here.
Edmonchuk
Active Member
Thank you for coming down from the centre of the universe and patting us on our silly Edmontonian shoulders.
Acey
Active Member
IanO is the one that challenged you for a source after you made the claim, not me. I thought it'd be interesting to not only provide the data and support your claim since I'm lucky enough to have it, but also provide my interpretation of it which, in this case, is positive for YEG.
Again not sure why you're coming after me in this case.
ChazYEG
Senior Member
I've gotta say, I am with him, on this... Don't quite understand why you are so triggered. Data supports your observation, but indeed, there are other considerations to the whole scenario (as it is expected).
That said, all of this supports that there is potential to increase the frequency YEG-AMS (albeit I'd rather have 3x weekly YEG-AMS and 3x week YEG-Somewhere else in Europe). I do believe that, overall, there is enough demand from YEG to warrant at least another Euro destination and at least one Asian destination with a 5x/week frequency (maybe with less frequent flights to Asia), but it will take some time for this to become more apparent, especially post Covid.
Now, realistically, YEG will never have as many destinations as YYC, for the simple fact that, even if we do become a business destination just as strong as Calgary (which might as well happen, with the whole hydrogen economy developing), we'll never be as close to Alberta's main tourist draws. Simple as that. Calgary is closer to the the Rockies (and Banff/Canmore, specifically) and Drumheller, both of which draw a significant number of visitors to the province.
Do I believe YEG can reach at least the same numbers as YYC had pre-Covid, with time? Absolutely, especially as our population grows and the nuclei of different communities get larger. But that will also likely mean that YYC will have higher numbers, too. And that is OKAY. YEG (and Edmonton) being successful doesn't mean getting the same (or better) results than YYC (and Calgary), but achieving the best results we can, with what we have.
I love playing with the Calgary/Edmonton competition as much as a the next guy, and I agree that there is a lot in Edmonton that could (should) be better and isn't because the Provincial government (and at times the Federal too) give preference to Calgary. But we need to stop comparing ourselves with them all of the time just for the sake of beating, or matching, them and start thinking about taking whatever good examples we can from all possible sources (including Calgary) and walking our own path.
Edmonchuk
Active Member
Maybe because you called my claim anecdotal?
And you haven’t provided any real data.
Acey
Active Member
Thanks Chaz... I think the important thing with AMS, and BASE mentioned it above, is the slot restraints and constraints on international pax. So while occidentalcapital is 100% correct when he says:
The exciting part of this for YEG is obviously what you just said Chaz, the potential for another European player to come in and fly what KLM either doesn't want to or can't.
...what we might be seeing with YEG-AMS specifically is an artificial inflation of pricing as KLM wrestles with distributing what is becoming an increasingly limited number of long haul frequencies.
The exciting part of this for YEG is obviously what you just said Chaz, the potential for another European player to come in and fly what KLM either doesn't want to or can't.
Acey
Active Member
Your claim, by definition, is anecdotal. The definition of "anecdotal" is "based on personal accounts," i.e. your flights and the couple other flights of your family/friends. It does not speak to the accuracy of those data points. I'm not saying your observations of the plane being full are not correct, rather that they are only a small subset of a larger population that has a high standard deviation so no meaningful conclusions can be drawn. I'd hope it's obvious as to why I can't come in here and fully disclose KLM's load factors but again, given that what I say they are supports your claim, I didn't think you'd have an issue with that.
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Acey
Active Member
Yep. The single data point of today being sunny is your flight on KLM, the total data set of every winter day in Edmonton equates to the total KLM LF over 100 flights, and the last statement is you believing your anecdotal evidence is a sufficient "sample" representative of the total data set.
occidentalcapital
Senior Member
Can we tone it down a bit. Point is all the transatlantic routes are doing well. Let's aim for another new one for next year.
husky
Active Member
What is the next realistic transatlantic target for YEG? Seems to me Icelandair could be one due to their history but I'm not sure what is more likely outside of that. Westjet to London maybe? CDG on AF maybe? If KLM is happy with loads but can't squeeze more into AMS then AF could maybe step in?
Acey
Active Member
I think you're on the right track, my first thought would be another Condor-type carrier. AF is a little premium heavy for YEG to work right now in my opinion, and WS is simply maxed out on Dreamliners. I'd have to think the most likely thing they'd do is YEG-LGW but they'd have to drop something else in peak season to have a free airplane to do it. Kinda just a waiting game at this point to see if their strategy backfires when they decided to cancel the remaining Dreamliners on order. Will all their new routes survive, or do they have a financially viable way to reinstate delivery slots for 787 if they ultimately decide they want them. We'll have to wait and see.
IanO
Superstar
All YEG has to do is wait out the development of the 797 and A119s, as they are incredibly well positioned to be YEG's opportunity for more direct transborder and international routes.