East Junction | 86m | 25s | Regency Developments | DER + Associates

[David A]

buckle up - this is where rents will likely be going esp after seeing what is happening in calgary over the last ~18 months.

Real estate is local, but we are not immune to the tsunami of housing shortages across Canada. It was delayed because of the economic downturn from 2015 to 2020, but it will hit here eventually too, just look at what happened in places like Nova Scotia, which are also far from the center of the universe.

 

[soupcrate]

Real estate is local, but we are not immune to the tsunami of housing shortages across Canada. It was delayed because of the economic downturn from 2015 to 2020, but it will hit here eventually too, just look at what happened in places like Nova Scotia, which are also far from the center of the universe.

Nova Scotia got hit as hard as it did because its real estate market is tiny. Edmonton is way larger and our rental market has plenty of slack - we can absorb a lot of newcomers.

 

[thommyjo]

Real estate is local, but we are not immune to the tsunami of housing shortages across Canada. It was delayed because of the economic downturn from 2015 to 2020, but it will hit here eventually too, just look at what happened in places like Nova Scotia, which are also far from the center of the universe.

Halifax is also a great city and very attractive for Toronto people. Many people in the GTA come from the Atlantic for work and many cashed out over covid to work remote in places like Nova Scotia to be close to family and the ocean. We wont see the same, although we are obviously getting some Van/tor spillover.

I just think this product is more like a 121 west, which was cheaper than this. Augustana is priced like this, but is much nicer and I’d imagine a better location in most people’s mind.

 

[David A]

Nova Scotia got hit as hard as it did because its real estate market is tiny. Edmonton is way larger and our rental market has plenty of slack - we can absorb a lot of newcomers.

Yes, we can absorb more than a smaller city, but also remember the higher priced cities people are leaving are twice as large to five times our size.

This is why Calgary is now having trouble absorbing the newcomers (or at least why rents are going up a lot there).

 

[soupcrate]

Yes, we can absorb more than a smaller city, but also remember the higher priced cities people are leaving are twice as large to five times our size.

This is why Calgary is now having trouble absorbing the newcomers (or at least why rents are going up a lot there).

Alberta is where the buck stops for housing because residential construction in our two major cities can scale up essentially infinitely.

Calgary will continue absorbing a high % of prairie-bound newcomers as it's the most prominent Prairie city. When Calgary's residential construction gets overwhelmed, Edmonton will pick up the excess until Calgary ramps up enough to handle the inflow. With 7% vacancy in Edmonton, we definitely have some breathing room.

The critical point is this: to keep housing supply + demand balanced, we don't need Prairie migration to slow down or even to stagnate. We just need it to return to modest y/y increases, which seems likely now that the post-covid shock is over.

 

[David A]

From observing a number of past cycles in Alberta, I don't think any city can scale up infinitely and certainly not as quickly as vacancy rates can change. Even if building increases in response to lower vacancy, then prices may increase too for land and other inputs. In any events, new buildings generally don't rent for less than existing ones.

Yes, currently the focus is on Calgary, but as prices there rise people (including some long term Calgarians who don't want to or can't pay much more) will move here and the vacancy rate will come down. Its not as big a transition from Calgary to Edmonton as say to a smaller city like Saskatoon and being in the same province it is the next logical choice.

 

[Daveography]

My best guess is they'll offer units at these prices and lock in as many leases as they can for those willing and able to afford them, then start bringing them down closer to the rest of the market as uptake slows.

Just conjecture, but trying to bilk as many people as you can for a slightly higher return would be on par with what I've come to expect.

Why yes, I have become cynical in my time away, thanks for noticing.

 

[KreationYEG]

If you close your eyes it’s almost like it’s not there, though you can’t ignore it.

 

[occidentalcapital]

I wonder whether this will lease up, or whether people have finally stopped tolerating poor architecture?

 

[IanO]

Most folks don't really care about architecture.

SS appliances, 'hardwood', 'granite' - SOLD!

 

[cmd uw]

Most folks don't really care about architecture.

SS appliances, 'hardwood', 'granite' - SOLD!

For the vast majority it's price first...regardless of whether you're buying or renting. Then come the other things - location, number of bedrooms/bathrooms, new/renovated, etc.

 

[mcr]

Centrally located, adjacent to an LRT station, concrete construction limiting sound transfer. It may look like complete crap, but checks a lot of boxes for places to live overall.

 

[Edmcowboy11]

Affordability, safety, convenience are the primary concerns for most, especially on a budget.

 

[TAS]

From previous reports though the pricing here is more in line with what you'd expect in the core.

 

[occidentalcapital]

But land costs may be higher in a central area

You would expect some premium from a more central location.