It's the bitter rural bubble you need to worry about the most. Despite being under-populated, they continue to be over-represented when it comes to their influence. I.e. a rural seat's population can still be tiny compared to an urban riding yet they hold the same power. This leads to an imbalance that naturally benefits one particular political party more than the other. The same way the electoral college in the USA continues to warp the popular vote in sickening and fateful ways...
The "Hills Have Eyes" esque communities I experienced as a kid and now during this pandemic show me while Edmonton and Calgary feel more and more like metropolitan global cities, these small towns don't. How to fix them? It takes long term investment and marketing, TBH... And a hell of a lot more exposure to diversity of population and opinion on a day to day basis... Thankfully Gen Z and Alpha are doing to do that and I thank them for that... It really is an adapt or die situation...
Absolutely. Rural Alberta holds a tremendous amount of power vis a vis their population in comparison to the cities. The imbalance has gone away slightly with new ridings added in Calgary and Edmonton but not in equalizing it completely. There's always been a saying that in order to win AB, you need two of the three areas to win (Edmonton, Calgary, Rural Alberta).
For any political party left of centre, rural AB is a complete write off unfortunately (except in one weird situation I'll mention in a bit), with the AB NDP only able to get Banff-Kananaskis, Lesser Slave Lake and Lethbridge East as the non Edmonton/Calgary ridings that they can effectively win in a 1v1 match with the UCP.
However, this situation changes if there is a slight split from the right (which is why Kenney's implosion this week is highly dangerous for him, he's pissed off a large segment of the anti-lockdown crowd that has a strong influence in rural AB). Two parties on the right make rural AB absolutely a train wreck of a competition for the NDP allowing them to achieve what they did in 2015. This is why Calgary is the key for the AB NDP, especially since despite the loss in 2019, the amount of votes they received in Calgary increased from 2015. Some of the ridings there were razor thin margins last election. Their path to victory (barring a vote split) lies through dominating the city.
On the second point, I really think that besides towns in the Calgary/Edmonton metro areas and places like Grande Prairie, Red Deer, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat, many towns in rural AB are slated for a decline sadly, even with the return of some O&G investment in the long run. Politically it makes me think Alberta's landscape will be much different in 10-15 years. I'd like to think we're headed for a Colorado situation where the shift was slow from being consistently GOP to consistently Democratic.
It also doesn't help that Kenney and the UCP are speed running the path of the BC Liberals of 15 years but in Alberta and in one term.
