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Alberta Politics

Kosy123 said:
Absolutely. Rural Alberta holds a tremendous amount of power vis a vis their population in comparison to the cities. The imbalance has gone away slightly with new ridings added in Calgary and Edmonton but not in equalizing it completely. There's always been a saying that in order to win AB, you need two of the three areas to win (Edmonton, Calgary, Rural Alberta).

For any political party left of centre, rural AB is a complete write off unfortunately (except in one weird situation I'll mention in a bit), with the AB NDP only able to get Banff-Kananaskis, Lesser Slave Lake and Lethbridge East as the non Edmonton/Calgary ridings that they can effectively win in a 1v1 match with the UCP.

However, this situation changes if there is a slight split from the right (which is why Kenney's implosion this week is highly dangerous for him, he's pissed off a large segment of the anti-lockdown crowd that has a strong influence in rural AB). Two parties on the right make rural AB absolutely a train wreck of a competition for the NDP allowing them to achieve what they did in 2015. This is why Calgary is the key for the AB NDP, especially since despite the loss in 2019, the amount of votes they received in Calgary increased from 2015. Some of the ridings there were razor thin margins last election. Their path to victory (barring a vote split) lies through dominating the city.

On the second point, I really think that besides towns in the Calgary/Edmonton metro areas and places like Grande Prairie, Red Deer, Lethbridge and Medicine Hat, many towns in rural AB are slated for a decline sadly, even with the return of some O&G investment in the long run. Politically it makes me think Alberta's landscape will be much different in 10-15 years. I'd like to think we're headed for a Colorado situation where the shift was slow from being consistently GOP to consistently Democratic.

It also doesn't help that Kenney and the UCP are speed running the path of the BC Liberals of 15 years but in Alberta and in one term.
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All 100% salient points my friend... I do think the shift is permanent. Even just thinking about how openly homophobic Albertans were before gay marriage was legalized vs now. Even if people THINK that way still rarely outside of private company do you hear nearly as many comments. Yes this is anecdotal however it is backed up with poll after poll that has shown that values are changing and the culture war outside of a few select issues has basically shifted towards full-on progress... One that is interesting/worrying is the support for abortion rights. Saw a poll yesterday that shows how the topic is less controversial in developing world nations now than 20 years ago and the opposite is true in the developed world i.e. Europe, the USA where laws are now restricting those freedoms... Go figure!

Alberta/BC seem to be moving one way, Saskitoba the other... Well, at least Saskatchewan... Manitoba seems to have buyers remorse with Palliser and his triangle of Kenney-like corrupt clique of COVID cockwomblers...
 
ION said:
A little louder for those oh so silent voices in the back... I can only hear some awkward coughing at this point... And yeah that's a COVID-19 reference... Would love hear from those phantom UCP supporters who unleashed the kraken on us. Seems like they have some 'splainin' to do... And some apologizing... Then again we know that'll never happen.
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The sad part is that By 2023, I'll have applied for my citizenship, already, but the process takes way longer than I'd like.
Regardless, you can expect me campaigning for whoever is the NDP candidate in my riding, as fiercely as possible.
Also, count me in to take down James Cumming in the general election, either if it's for a Liberal or NDP, I don't care, just want to get rid of as many of "them" as possible.
 
Doesn't even have to be an NDP vs. Conservative choice next time imo. I think that the Alberta Party could be resurrected by a strong leader and voices behind it with good ideas and policy, offering a third choice to 2 parties which I think people are pretttty tired of atm. The Liberal party, on the other hand 😐 As much as I'd like to see them have a fair chance, even just the word "liberal" has been tainted for so many people for their own reasons in our province specifically that it's going to have a hard and long path in front of it to be a choice that lots of people feel comfortable voting for again.
 
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But what do I know, right? I'm only 16 for crying out loud so I don't know what I'm talkin about 🤪 (just kidding, of course)

Hold up... 2021... 22.... 23... I'll be able to vote in the next election!?! :eek: Guess time does fly like that when you're sitting at home doing NOTHING lol
 
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Platinum107 said:
But what do I know, right? I'm only 16 for crying out loud so I don't know what I'm talkin about 🤪 (just kidding, of course)

Hold up... 2021... 22.... 23... I'll be able to vote in the next election!?! :eek: Guess time does fly like that when you're sitting at home doing NOTHING lmao.
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Oooooh the next election. I remember when I was going to be 18 in a week in the 2015 election so you have the chance to avoid my missed opportunity and mark that ballot and kick a government out!

But on your earlier points, I could say that the Alberta Party could be a contender but the fact they're in a weird limbo rn is very disadvantageous. Do they want to be more of centre-left alternative? Or just the PC's with a new name. Mandel taking the reigns in 2019 and it having absolutely no direction right now with barely any media presence is damaging. I don't really think they'll have a strong impact the next election or even a few election cycles afterwards if they keep this up. The only riding they have a chance of winning is Calgary-Elbow and it's a ridiculous 33-33-33 split between them, the UCP and the NDP.

Aw the Liberal Party and my boi David Khan :( Weirdly enough in 2019, they ran to the left of the NDP by essentially advocating for a PST, but they have the AB party issue but worse. Their political field is essentially been taken over by the AB NDP, I don't see them even coming back within the next 10 years as long as the AB NDP don't fracture and so far, they have absolutely no indication that they will.

Personally the evolution of Alberta towards a two party system is a massive marked improvement over a one party state where the party conventions were the real elections rather than the elections themselves.
 
Maybe Don Iveson could lead the Alberta Party & the Liberal Party simultaneously and resurrect them both lmao
 
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Calgary finally waking up...
338canada.com

338Canada Alberta | Poll Analysis & Electoral Projections

338canada.com 338canada.com
IMG_20210109_125827.jpg
 
An interesting thing in the polls and 338's projection is the sheer lead that the AB NDP has in Edmonton garnering 60% of the vote. That's a massive amount that dwarfs even their 2015 performance. If Edmonton continues growing (population wise) and the political culture here continues with it (along with Calgary steering a similar course but in less magnitude), it's a massive political realignment.

I don't want to make any guesses or predictions but a good chunk of me definitely thinks Alberta is becoming more like BC than SK politically than anything else.
 
Kosy123 said:
An interesting thing in the polls and 338's projection is the sheer lead that the AB NDP has in Edmonton garnering 60% of the vote. That's a massive amount that dwarfs even their 2015 performance. If Edmonton continues growing (population wise) and the political culture here continues with it (along with Calgary steering a similar course but in less magnitude), it's a massive political realignment.

I don't want to make any guesses or predictions but a good chunk of me definitely thinks Alberta is becoming more like BC than SK politically than anything else.
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As an "outsider", I tend to agree with that. And I'm glad that it seems to be the way AB is shifting. My only issue with this is the fact that it will probably mean a big divide and a level of animosity between two parties that might not be healthy, at least in the short/mid terms
 
ChazYEG said:
As an "outsider", I tend to agree with that. And I'm glad that it seems to be the way AB is shifting. My only issue with this is the fact that it will probably mean a big divide and a level of animosity between two parties that might not be healthy, at least in the short/mid terms
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It's always been that way. If I had a dime for every time someone called me a "pinko, faggot, commie, socalist" or worse in this province I could afford a penthouse in Lotusland and never be subjected to this casual hate that Alberta is notorious for, never mind on THAT other architecture forum which has fallen into the abyss so hard that nobody ever visits it anymore.

It doesn't help that RIGHT WINGER'S have run it for the last 86 years or so, with the exception of the 2015-2019 blip... That's kind of par for the course. Politics of Alberta



And for the record, I didn't choose Alberta. My families roots extend here from the 1890's to the 1930's respectively on all four sides of my family... Nor does it help that classy premiers that respect all of their citizens regardless of political stripe are far and few between. Literally Lougheed, Stelmach and Notley and that's about it. Otherwise I've seen nothing but tacky ideologues in the Klein/Getty/Reford/Prentice/Kenney vein and that's sickening! What and who I wouldn't metaphorically kill to return to the days before fascist swept the western world...
 
UCP - United Calgary Party
26 cabinet ministers - 17 from Calgary.
Edmonton only elected one UCP member so not much UCP can do about that. But rural Alberta is not liking it and interesting to see if that will be an issue in 2023. But for now, it's Calgary dominance.

www.google.com

Braid: Kenney shuffle cements Calgary's complete dominance of cabinet

Premier Jason Kenney's cabinet now has 26 members, including 20 full ministers, five associates and the premier himself.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
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