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Alberta Politics

TAS said:
He is as big a booster of Calgary you will find, but I would be comfortable with him as leader and feel Edmonton would be treated well.

He would certainly add interest and excitement to the race.
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He could probably be the one name to dislodge the United Calgary Party from the provincial government, seeing as he is still very popular in Calgary, and could probably help flip enough seats.
Also agree that he'd probably treat Edmonton more fairly. If anything, his party's largest voter base is here.
 
I think that if Nenshi became NDP leader, it would almost be a guaranteed NDP victory in the next election, for a couple reasons. First as you mention, he's very popular in Calgary the election was also very close last time, if a couple thousand votes went the other way in key Calgary ridings, we would have Rachel Notley as Premier. Alberta Elections are decided in Calgary, Edmonton votes orange, rural votes blue and Calgary is a toss up. Putting a strong, popular Calgary politician in for the NDP almost guarantees a win. I also think the UCP have lost a lot of faith even with their core base thanks to their seemingly total lack of interest in addressing affordability, preferring to do what they always do: scream about the Feds and do nothing themselves. Also I think the CPP shenanigans has alienated a lot of voters who might otherwise have voted Conservative.

Overall, I think it's not impossible for the NDP to win with another candidate, but Nenshi is certainly the best bet and would be my pick for leader.
 
erudyk_29 said:
I think that if Nenshi became NDP leader, it would almost be a guaranteed NDP victory in the next election, for a couple reasons. First as you mention, he's very popular in Calgary the election was also very close last time, if a couple thousand votes went the other way in key Calgary ridings, we would have Rachel Notley as Premier. Alberta Elections are decided in Calgary, Edmonton votes orange, rural votes blue and Calgary is a toss up. Putting a strong, popular Calgary politician in for the NDP almost guarantees a win. I also think the UCP have lost a lot of faith even with their core base thanks to their seemingly total lack of interest in addressing affordability, preferring to do what they always do: scream about the Feds and do nothing themselves. Also I think the CPP shenanigans has alienated a lot of voters who might otherwise have voted Conservative.

Overall, I think it's not impossible for the NDP to win with another candidate, but Nenshi is certainly the best bet and would be my pick for leader.
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While rural Alberta is still likely out of reach for the NDP, Nenshi might have some strength in some of the smaller cities, too.
 
TAS said:
Nenshi might have some strength in some of the smaller cities, too
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Maybe in the rest of Calgary's CMA and some of the cities between Calgary and Banff, but I can't think of any other places where he might flip seats.

erudyk_29 said:
I think that if Nenshi became NDP leader, it would almost be a guaranteed NDP victory in the next election, for a couple reasons. First as you mention, he's very popular in Calgary the election was also very close last time, if a couple thousand votes went the other way in key Calgary ridings, we would have Rachel Notley as Premier. Alberta Elections are decided in Calgary, Edmonton votes orange, rural votes blue and Calgary is a toss up. Putting a strong, popular Calgary politician in for the NDP almost guarantees a win. I also think the UCP have lost a lot of faith even with their core base thanks to their seemingly total lack of interest in addressing affordability, preferring to do what they always do: scream about the Feds and do nothing themselves. Also I think the CPP shenanigans has alienated a lot of voters who might otherwise have voted Conservative.

Overall, I think it's not impossible for the NDP to win with another candidate, but Nenshi is certainly the best bet and would be my pick for leader.
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More important than just winning the next election, I think Nenshi would be able to hold on to premiership for longer than Notley did, and actually put in place some longer term projects.

The biggest issue that a lot of Calgarians had with Notley was how she's perceived as being too close to Singh and the Federal NDP, whom they don't trust. They trust Nenshi and, him being an "outsider" to the party, coupled with his very successful run as mayor is his biggest asset in this case.

From a very cynical standpoint, I would say he'd probably maintain provincial focus in Calgary for a first term, to ensure a reelection and growing support. Don't think it would be the same degree of preferential treatment the UCP giver Calgary, though, and Edmonton wouldn't be an afterthought, as he'd be pressed to maintain support within his base to prevent being voted out as party leader. A second (and any subsequent) term would probably be a lot more equitable.

I really hope he joins the fray and get chosen as party leader.. We need to get out of the UCP's claws and he's probably the best chance we have to do it.
 
ChazYEG said:
Maybe in the rest of Calgary's CMA and some of the cities between Calgary and Banff, but I can't think of any other places where he might flip seats.
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And "the cities between Calgary and Banff" are already represented by the NDP MLA for Banff-Kananaskis.

Realistically, the dozen or so ridings that saw the biggest swing away from the UCP in 2023 vs. 2019 were all within Calgary, followed by places like Airdrie and Red Deer. I think it's quite... premature to say that a Nenshi-led NDP would have the upper hand in any election, but I do think he'd give the party the best chance of not only consolidating the gains they made in 2023, but building significantly on them.
 
ChazYEG said:
Maybe in the rest of Calgary's CMA and some of the cities between Calgary and Banff, but I can't think of any other places where he might flip
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Lethbridge East for one could definitely be flipped. It elected NDP in 2015 and it had a Liberal MLA (Ken Nicol) before that for multiple terms.

Lethbridge West is already NDP ( the excellent Shannon Phillips).
 
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Neshi has a good electability if he jumps in. No political leanings will make it hard for the UCP to pigeon hole him. They will have to bring out the christian nationalist hate big time. People in Calgary had no major issues with him, Edmonton looked favorably on him. The big question will be how much the rural ridings realise how bad things are for them with the UCP. Healthcare has to fail completely in rural areas. RedDeers hospital expansion has to be delayed even more. One thing simmering in the background is water rights. If it does turn out to be a drought year, fighting for water will be big. Currently water rights go to those that were first to sign on. Which was the O&G industry. SO farmers will have to negotiate.
 
There is a lot of talk about Nenshi on here but I would be curious to find out more about Kathleen Ganley. She has high profile endorsements, experience and good leadership qualities. She seems to be on the ball and has the momentum at the moment. Most likely not enough Albertans know enough about her but as the leadership race goes on if she can prove herself in her communication and policies, she could have a real shot. I do get the feeling that there is a leaning towards electing a Calgarian NDP leader for more Calgary votes and provincial wide appeal.
 
Historically speaking, the provincial PCs were typically Calgary centric and had substantial Calgary influence, this and the last UCP governments may as well be named the "United Calgary Party", and now we are talking about having an NDP leader from Calgary so that the NDP can have more influence and sway provincially?

Why don't we just pack up the legislature and move it down highway 2 Calgary. We can even pay for it with our own money given that Edmontonians are also funding their new arena through provincial tax.

How did Edmonton become such a limp wet noodle in the world of politics and power?
 
Well given the UCP has had few or no MLA's in Edmonton it would be hard for them to have an Edmonton leader. Likewise for the NDP, which for years has had leaders only from Edmonton, didn't have seats outside of Edmonton for a very long time.

However, now the NDP does now have a fairly strong Calgary contingent, so that opens up possibilities for them that did not exist before. If they are going to win, they do need to broaden their appeal a bit.
 
^
It’s my understanding Cabinet Ministers are selected by the Premier or the Prime Minister and while typically chosen from the governing party’s MLA’s or MP’s that’s not always the case and there have been exceptions previously in addition to zest Cabinets that often include opposition party members . Stephen Mandel and former Saskatchewan cabinet minister Gordon Dirks were both non-elected members of Prentice’s cabinet…
 
Though there's no requirement in law, Parliamentary tradition and responsible government demand that anyone appointed to the Cabinet seek a seat at the earliest opportunity.
 
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