Edmonton's early LRT didn't start out strong either. Also, were these ARC card boardings, or were these achieved through statistical modelling. An example here.
Didn’t say methodology unfortunately.
One hope is that these are from ARC data and capital line numbers are from head count extrapolations of sorts and that a good chunk of discrepancies could be non paying, or non tapping customers.
But even still, say the real number is 12k, not 6k. There’s no way it’s anywhere close to 50% or projections. Which feels like a massive failure.
New rail, for billions, should also increase overall transit use, not just replace buses. So hopefully at the end of 2024 we have a sense of if overall net trips increased vs just trains replacing buses but ridership/use staying flat.
If we want to hit our 50% goal of non car travel for all trips, we likely need 25% of that to be transit, 3-4% biking, and 12% walking.
We’re around 9-11% transit right now if I remember correctly. So this line needs to boost us a few percent, and WVLRT another few too. If these two can’t get us close to 20%, then I don’t think the 50% goal will be reached. Capital south barely opens up much more ridership. Metro NW will be good, but likely only a few % bump too.