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Municipal Politics

One thing I am sure of: Cartmell is the current premier's puppet candidate.

I don't see him winning as long as Caterina and Sandhu in the race to split the right wing vote.
 
If the progressive vote coalesces into one candidate (probably Sohi if he runs again) and there's 3-4 right of centre candidates, then I don't see as much of a path to the mayor's office for Cartmell tbh. Caterina (and Sandhu along with what other candidates pop up) running is the biggest issue for Cartmell's chances rather than the strength of Sohi or a different progressive candidate.
 
Kosy123 said:
If the progressive vote coalesces into one candidate (probably Sohi if he runs again) and there's 3-4 right of centre candidates, then I don't see as much of a path to the mayor's office for Cartmell tbh. Caterina (and Sandhu along with what other candidates pop up) running is the biggest issue for Cartmell's chances rather than the strength of Sohi or a different progressive candidate.
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I suspect Cartmell is really hoping Sohi will run and not another potentially stronger progressive candidate. Regardless of the number of candidates, I feel a lot of the right of centre vote will coalesce with Cartmell particularly if Sohi runs, unless they do not see Cartmell as likely to win.
 
David A said:
I suspect Cartmell is really hoping Sohi will run and not another potentially stronger progressive candidate. Regardless of the number of candidates, I feel a lot of the right of centre vote will coalesce with Cartmell particularly if Sohi runs, unless they do not see Cartmell as likely to win.
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There's not really a stronger candidate right now who might make the run tbh (for me at least). Unless someone like Notley or a former/current NDP MLA puts their name on the running.

It's the spoiler effect for the other right of centre candidates, especially if it becomes a close election. You can't really aim for an anti-incumbency vote as a current councillor anyway.
 
Kosy123 said:
There's not really a stronger candidate right now who might make the run tbh (for me at least). Unless someone like Notley or a former/current NDP MLA puts their name on the running.

It's the spoiler effect for the other right of centre candidates, especially if it becomes a close election. You can't really aim for an anti-incumbency vote as a current councillor anyway.
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Oh you can bet Cartmell is going to run against the current council and unless there is another strong candidate on the left, centre or right it will probably work. Sohi will not be a strong candidate.
 
Kosy123 said:
If the progressive vote coalesces into one candidate (probably Sohi if he runs again) and there's 3-4 right of centre candidates, then I don't see as much of a path to the mayor's office for Cartmell tbh. Caterina (and Sandhu along with what other candidates pop up) running is the biggest issue for Cartmell's chances rather than the strength of Sohi or a different progressive candidate.
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I don't think Sohi has impressed many on the left, right or centre. Cartmell selling himself as Mr. Fiscally-Responsible-Engineer-Small-Business-Owner will probably resonate with a lot of folks who are sick of the continual property tax increases and seemingly endless construction, which will likely include a healthy chunk of the progressive vote. Caterina landed 5th(!!!) in the last municipal election despite being basically the partial incumbent. I don't think he or Sandhu are really serious threats to split the vote in any meaningful way.

What remains interesting to me is if the legislation allowing political parties plays any part in this election. If Cartmell is the UCP's golden boy, why isn't he championing a party right now with his mayoral campaign announcement?
 
He is championing a party right now -his own party under his name.

Cartmell and Sohi voted the same way 97% of the time. If he claims to be different, he will be painted as a dishonest person and can't escape from that indefensible fact.
 
Cartmell has stated that the other candidates under his party banner will not be his "minions" but he will their "captain". I'm not particularly optimistic that this distinction will prove meaningful.
 
Cartmell will claim he wants to cut property taxes but has voted to increase taxes every single year. Don't ever forget that.
 
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I’ll cast my bet now: Cartmell wins.

I don’t think sohi beats him, and I don’t think a new option can beat the name recognition Cartmell has already.

But the council is more than the mayor. They’re just 1 vote. So I’m more interested in what sort of “team” he’s trying to build and if any of them will be successful.

I hope to see more business savy leaders get in. I hope we have downtown boosters. I hope we keep some strong progressive voices and those who can keep our work on transit/biking/infill going. I hope we have more vision (even though it’ll be some slim budgets this decade). And I hope we improve our finances.
 
thommyjo said:
I’ll cast my bet now: Cartmell wins.

I don’t think sohi beats him, and I don’t think a new option can beat the name recognition Cartmell has already.

But the council is more than the mayor. They’re just 1 vote. So I’m more interested in what sort of “team” he’s trying to build and if any of them will be successful.

I hope to see more business savy leaders get in. I hope we have downtown boosters. I hope we keep some strong progressive voices and those who can keep our work on transit/biking/infill going. I hope we have more vision (even though it’ll be some slim budgets this decade). And I hope we improve our finances.
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The Principled Accountable Coalition for Edmonton (PACE) and TAPYeg, two conservative-leaning groups that have announced their intentions to form municipal political parties for the 2025 Edmonton election, say they will merge under the PACE banner.

Given some of the people behind these parties, you have to think they will have a credible person running for mayor. With that, will they be more business minded/saavy than Cartmell in terms of wanting to attract and create a stronger downtown/office market and perhaps more of a champion for the city (for lack of a better word). Maybe he already is that person - I'm not sure.
I know Caetmell will be looking to reign in spending and keep taxes low and work to create efficiencies/more financial accountability from city departments and really limit any new spending/projects.

I wonder if the feds/province have future money on the table for transit expansion, if he will support spending on additional lrt.
 
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That so-called merged municipal party, which we all know is just for the UCP to spy on Edmonton's inner workings are so power hungry they will submit their own candidate and split the right wing vote, allowing Sohi to be reelected. Trust me, South Asians will show up to support Sohi.
 
trevorhayden said:
That so-called merged municipal party, which we all know is just for the UCP to spy on Edmonton's inner workings are so power hungry they will submit their own candidate and split the right wing vote, allowing Sohi to be reelected. Trust me, South Asians will show up to support Sohi.
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I'm not sure I agree with this. Smith, I believe, favors Cartmell. We have ample evidence in support of this theory: 1) Smith and Cartmell met privately (before Smith even met Sohi!); 2) Smith appointed Cartmell (and Hamilton) to a provincial task force without consulting the mayor or city council; 3) Smith has boosted Cartmell on social media and has generally said nice things about him.

Now, some of these things are probably too subtle to be noticed by the general electorate, but the signals are pretty clear if you look for them. I think Cartmell has a good chance in the next election because he tries to paint himself as a "sensible businessman" type rather than a dyed-in-the-wool UCP mouthbreather, and most incumbents are going to have trouble right now due to post-covid malaise, but this campaign will be interesting no matter what.
 
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