Edmonton's Population

[occidentalcapital]

Is it at all possible that some of this has to do with the province reallocating resources here due to the current situation? These numbers seem really dramatic.

Reporters consistently forget that the occupation specific data at municipal level are well known to be volatile due to small sample sizes

No one cut 20k health workers from Calgary. That would be like closing 3 hospitals. It didn't happen.

 

[David A]

Reporters consistently forget that the occupation specific data at municipal level are well known to be volatile due to small sample sizes

No one cut 20k health workers from Calgary. That would be like closing 3 hospitals. It didn't happen.

Yeah, that makes no sense to me either. I wonder if it has something to do with some of the organizational transitions happening in health care like from Dynacare to AHS.

For instance, people may have left one organization at the end of the reporting period, but not started with the new one until the next period.

 

[Kosy123]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-records-rapid-increase-to-working-age-population-1.7122022

Mutheardy said the city's economic forecast puts Edmonton's net population growth in 2023 at 4.7 per cent, with projections for a 3.5 per cent increase in 2024.

Hopefully this spurs more rental development? Because these numbers are quite heavy. I'd argue the 2024 forecast might be understated again like it was for 2023.

 

[occidentalcapital]

I think the forecast is low too.

This tends to happen when your main method of forecasting is just predicting long term reversion to the mean and ignoring structural changes.

 

[Munanyo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere last week that the forecast for newcomers coming to Edmonton in 2024 will surpass 2023 numbers?

 

[Kosy123]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere last week that the forecast for newcomers coming to Edmonton in 2024 will surpass 2023 numbers?

I haven't seen anywhere that said that yet. I know from the Conference Board of Canada numbers, they stated that 2024 numbers will be less than 2023. However, they also estimated back in Nov 2023 that Edmonton would only grow by around 40,000+, just a little bit less than the 2022 numbers.

Fast forward to this month's report and that was wholly understated by 30,000 people at least.

 

[edm13]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I read somewhere last week that the forecast for newcomers coming to Edmonton in 2024 will surpass 2023 numbers?

this might be what you’re thinking of

Edmonton sees record breaking migration to the city, job increases in professional and technical sectors: report

Edmonton saw an "electric" migration in 2023 spurred on by the city's stable economy and affordable housing which is attracting Canadians.

edmontonjournal.com

 

[Munanyo]

this might be what you’re thinking of

Edmonton sees record breaking migration to the city, job increases in professional and technical sectors: report

Edmonton saw an "electric" migration in 2023 spurred on by the city's stable economy and affordable housing which is attracting Canadians.

edmontonjournal.com

Yes this is the one!

 

[David A]

I haven't seen anywhere that said that yet. I know from the Conference Board of Canada numbers, they stated that 2024 numbers will be less than 2023. However, they also estimated back in Nov 2023 that Edmonton would only grow by around 40,000+, just a little bit less than the 2022 numbers.

Fast forward to this month's report and that was wholly understated by 30,000 people at least.

I don't know if the Conference Board realizes that much of the migration here is currently driven significantly by lack of affordability in other places.

Unless something significant changes during the year, which I doubt, I expect it will continue similar to 2023.

 

[BASE]

Surely it will be strong but I think in general they will be a little bit tighter on immigration this year which might dampen things a touch. Wonder how long the strength of folks moving from other parts of Canada will continue or if there will be a bit of a wall where for the most part those that wanted/needed to move due to housing costs have done so.

 

[JuliallThat]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-records-rapid-increase-to-working-age-population-1.7122022

Edmonton's working-age population grew faster than any other major city in Canada last year, setting the stage for discussions about how to handle the continuing surge of new residents.

Not only is Alberta's capital outpacing Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal and Calgary for population growth among people 15 and older, but City of Edmonton chief corporate economist Felicia Mutheardy says the 2023 increase is second only to Belleville, Ont.

The numbers come from Statistics Canada's labour force survey, which Mutheardy said helps estimate growth before the release of updated population numbers.

 

[occidentalcapital]

Surely it will be strong but I think in general they will be a little bit tighter on immigration this year which might dampen things a touch. Wonder how long the strength of folks moving from other parts of Canada will continue or if there will be a bit of a wall where for the most part those that wanted/needed to move due to housing costs have done so.

Unless Toronto/Vancouver have a housing price crash I can't see it stopping. As younger people in those cities age to a point where they want more space, successive waves of people will be looking for where to make that happen.

 

[SMayo]

At a certain point things will start to balance out, prices will go up here, and the rush of people moving here from Ontario and BC will slow. We are more affordable for sure but the province won't be able to solely rely on affordability to continue attracting such a large amount of migration forever.

 

[David A]

Prices could go up here a lot and still be very affordable compared to the GTA and Vancouver, so I don't think that will be what causes migration to slow.

The problem is more at the other end - prices there will need to level out or fall, or other things happen, to make it more affordable there. I don't really see that happening in the next few years.

 

[Glenco]