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Edmonton's population is booming, where are all the new proposals?

goodcitywhenfinished

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Edmonton grew at 4.5% in 2023 and we can expect 4.4% in 2024. Why have we not seen a flood of new development proposals?

Is this just a result of the current lending environment? Are housing starts being absorbed by the city's new multiplex laws (which don't require rezoning)? Or is most of the growth being accommodated in greenfield exurbs?

How many years do real estate developers usually lag behind macro population trends? It would be interesting to see how long it took housing starts to respond during the last major population growth period in Edmonton during the 2006-2007 oil boom.
 
It's happening outside the Henday and a bit in small-scale infill
South and west of the Henday in particular seems to have more development than other parts. I will be interested to see how effective the multiplex zoning pans out to be. A lot of cities (Victoria, Minneapolis, Toronto, Vancouver) have seen very few actually built despite being allowed as-of-right.

In the case of Toronto and Vancouver, the multiplex bylaws have been filled with poison pills that make it hard for developers to get units to pencil out. Namely: tiny FAR allowances, huge setbacks, and units capped at 4-6 per lot. I hope Edmonton's bylaw will allow units to be financially feasible.
 
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There are other poison pills in Vancouver too, including sewage and power requirements for laneway homes.

Front-back duplexes (at about $1.3M each) are the most common infill in Vancouver at this point, other than 6-storey buildings on major corridors.
 
A significant chunk of the incoming migrants have been absorbed by the existing rental market. The fact that Edmonton went from something like 7% vacancy to 2% in a few years is testament to that. Suburban development outside the Henday plays a large part in absorbing that population increase too.

We’re seeing stuff west of 109 St as well in the core but there’s a decent chunk of small scale infill going on like dunno mentioned
 
There’s probably 6-7 different 8plexes just in West Jasper Place under construction currently. Not hugely felt like a larger apartment build might be, but those are 50 new units replacing 6 homes.

Lots of Ukrainians and young couples moving into these from those I’ve met.

WJP is likely seeing some of the highest rates of infill in the city, but I’d imagine inglewood, grovenor, jasper park, Bonnie doon, etc aren’t far off.
 
Seems like there is still a large disconnect between financing + construction costs and rental rates/home values to make anything pencil. High interest rates and inflated material prices. Condo prices are still depressed with lots of inventory and plenty of folks underwater in them. Lots of SFH options for below $400k. Rents shot up big time YOY but that's after a decade+ of rents being fairly low and stable with little growth.

Do wonder what happens in 2025 after another year of all of this. Rents are going to continue to climb, so will home prices, If rates drop, it might be open floodgates for Edmonton development.
 
Within a few blocks of my home in Inglewood, I can count at least six SFHs that have been demo'd and replaced by 4-plexes. At least half of those 4-plexes have basement suites and a garage suite. "Gentle densification" in action.

One of the things I'm curious about regarding even gentle infill like this, which I love to see happening, is around parking.

It was interesting at a council meeting I heard where admin shared stats that even though population had decreased in some of our older neighbourhoods, fewer people per household, parking was a bigger issue than in the past because more people have cars versus maybe one per household in the past, now there can be 3 or 4.

So as these neighbourhoods increase with even this gentle density, what is it going to mean for all the cars on the street because that 4 plex with basement suites isn't going to have garage parking for 8 or more vehicles.

If we didn't have so many cars, this wouldn't be such an issue. But that is our culture.
 
One of the things I'm curious about regarding even gentle infill like this, which I love to see happening, is around parking.

It was interesting at a council meeting I heard where admin shared stats that even though population had decreased in some of our older neighbourhoods, fewer people per household, parking was a bigger issue than in the past because more people have cars versus maybe one per household in the past, now there can be 3 or 4.

So as these neighbourhoods increase with even this gentle density, what is it going to mean for all the cars on the street because that 4 plex with basement suites isn't going to have garage parking for 8 or more vehicles.

If we didn't have so many cars, this wouldn't be such an issue. But that is our culture.
For once, I believe that this is proof that the demand for housing doesn't necessarily depend on parking. A lot of this gentle infill is happening in areas where these new residents (which I'll guess are mostly younger families or recent immigrants looking for more central living, but with enough space for families) don't have, or want, multiple cars, for one reason or the other (financial constraints, lifestyle, etc.).

I understand it is anecdotal, but I know a few families who moved into some of these more centrally located infills, coming from suburbia (mostly north side) and one thing all of them had in common was that they went from having 2 or 3 cars to only one. One couple, who moved into a skinny house in Westmount, actually dropped both of their cars and now use Communauto whenever they need a vehicle, but they mostly bike or take transit.

Parking might end up being a short-term issue, IMO, in this situation. I believe that, in the end, these people with 3, 4 cars in a single household, living in central (ish) neighbourhoods will end up caving and packing their stuff to the outer suburbs. while people who are less car dependent will end up filling up the vacuum. I'd be willing to bet large sums of money that the Venn diagram between the folks with 1-car-per-person households and NIMBYs is almost a perfect circle, which means that as densification intensifies (and now with less power on the NINBYs' hands to be able to stop it from happening), we'll see a run for suburbia. My money is on this process being sped up by the influx of migrants from ON and BC, most of whom will probably be happy to buy/rent a skinny house, or a unit in a fourplex, townhome, etc, with 2x the space of what they could get in an apartment/condo in Toronto or Vancouver, for less money, and where they won't need to have multip[e vehicles (or any vehicle at all, sometimes).
 
I think we should introduce a small parking permit system citywide. Between 2am-5am, to park on the road you have to be registered, and you pay a small monthly fee of like $25 to start.

It'll be amazing how many people magically learn how to clean their garages thanks to this!

Then upping the prices over time to reflect the right revenue capture for snow clearing, maintenance, etc is key.

Parking on streets full time shouldn't be free. I now way too many people that essentially use their garages as gyms, bonus rooms, storage, woodshops, etc, then park 2-3 cars on the curb constantly. Make them pay!

I think that'll help with infill too as our transit/biking/car share gets better, more people will consider reducing the # of cars their home owns if there are alternatives and the price/logistics of parking get harder.
 
I think we should introduce a small parking permit system citywide. Between 2am-5am, to park on the road you have to be registered, and you pay a small monthly fee of like $25 to start.

It'll be amazing how many people magically learn how to clean their garages thanks to this!

Then upping the prices over time to reflect the right revenue capture for snow clearing, maintenance, etc is key.

Parking on streets full time shouldn't be free. I now way too many people that essentially use their garages as gyms, bonus rooms, storage, woodshops, etc, then park 2-3 cars on the curb constantly. Make them pay!

I think that'll help with infill too as our transit/biking/car share gets better, more people will consider reducing the # of cars their home owns if there are alternatives and the price/logistics of parking get harder.

Or we could go this route

Screenshot_20240319-104506_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
I think we should introduce a small parking permit system citywide. Between 2am-5am, to park on the road you have to be registered, and you pay a small monthly fee of like $25 to start.

It'll be amazing how many people magically learn how to clean their garages thanks to this!

Then upping the prices over time to reflect the right revenue capture for snow clearing, maintenance, etc is key.

Parking on streets full time shouldn't be free. I now way too many people that essentially use their garages as gyms, bonus rooms, storage, woodshops, etc, then park 2-3 cars on the curb constantly. Make them pay!

I think that'll help with infill too as our transit/biking/car share gets better, more people will consider reducing the # of cars their home owns if there are alternatives and the price/logistics of parking get harder.
I think it would be appropriate to start it as free, or an inconsequential annual fee to cover program expenses.
Maybe it's free/cheap for the first car, but increasing fee for every additional vehicle registered to the same address.
From there we can see how behaviour adjusts, and as we normalize parking permit fees it will be more palatable to increase fees long term.
 
In recent walks around westmount, inglewood, grovenor and glenora areas there are a staggering amount of freshly cleared lots. I know not all will be densification but even if it's new giant SFW houses it still drives demand in the areas. I think with zoning changes the gentle density of lots of infill everywhere is way more boom/bust cycle proof being accessible to many smaller developers. The Highrise and mega developments are just so hard to get off the starting blocks and it sucks, but man i wish we had some big picture projects happening too to get other areas kicking off.
 

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