Vancouver has gone wire to wire on top of the division and consistent all year long. Very consistent. Lack of playoff experience for many of them, but I'm taking them over Nashville.
Are we recording our picks each round - see who Skyrise champ will be?
Round 1:
West:
Vancouver x Nashville (still could be LA or Vegas, but it's unlikely)
I'd say the odds are in Vancouver's favour because they are the better team, but who knows how Demko will be when he returns. Their depth is great, their defense is probably the best of any playoff team in the West and they seem to be a very calm and collected team. Having home ice advantage is also be a major factor here. The Preds are, in my opinion, the most underrated playoff team in the West, and I do think they're a better team than the LAK. Saaros and Josi have been hot lately, but I don't think it'll be enough to beat the Canucks, even if they are Demkoless (or with him not at his best).
I'd favour Vancouver 60/40.
My prediction: Canucks in 6
Edmonton x Vegas (Could still be LA, but unlikely)
Vegas will be stacked for the playoffs, and they have the playoff experience and grit, but they haven't played their full post trade deadline roster together, and the new guys might not gel with the ones coming back from LTIR. The Oilers have a better team, on paper, and are much improved over last year. Not as much in terms of roster moves, but consistency, 5-on-5 strength and goaltending. Since Knoblauch took over, Edmonton has been the league's best team in almost all aspects (tied 1st in goals for, 5th goals against, most wins, most regulation wins, 2nd least losses, highest goal differential (+80), %gf, %ga, 6th lowest penalty minutes...).
I'd favour Edmonton 60/40.
My prediction: Oilers in 6
Dallas x LA (could be Nashville or Vegas, but unlikely)
Anyone playing against Dallas right now, in the West, is the dark horse. They're what you'd expect from a final 4 team who not only has kept the base form last year, but built on it. They're consistent, strong in all aspects and are a very gritty team. LA is a very annoying team to play against, and they can be gritty (and dirty, at times). They're probably the weakest they've been in the past 3 seasons, and I honestly don't know if they're dreading or welcoming a different match-up than the previous 2 against the Oilers, since on one side, you got the Stars, arguably the best team in the conference right now, and on the other you got an improved Edmonton, who has been dismantling their team for two consecutive playoffs and already know how to beat them. If I were LA, I'd be feeling between a rock and a hard place. Chokes can happen, but I don't think we'll see one here. If the series ends up being against the VGK I'd favour the Stars 60/40, but against either LA or Nashville, I think it's very lopsided.
I'd favour Dallas 80/20 to win.
My prediction: Stars in 5
Winnipeg x Colorado
This is probably the most evenly matched series in the west. If momentum carries into the playoffs, the Jets will be a force to be reckoned with. On paper, the Avs have a better team, and loads of playoff experience. Their top line is one of the most dangerous and effective in the league (MacKinnon is likely to be in the top 2 for in Hart trophy for a reason), but Georgiev has been playing like s&*t lately, and their defense seems to be struggling as well. On the other side of this, Helleybuck is the front runner for the Vezina, in my mind, as he's been the most consistently good starter of the season, and his game usually steps up in the playoffs. Winnipeg's offense is also heating up.
I'd say this one is 50/50, and momentum in the series might be decisive.
My prediction: Jets in 7
East
Florida x Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay's story has been interesting this season, and they're not really a one-man-army like many are saying. Sure, Kucherov has been carrying the bulk of the load, and is having one of the best seasons of any player since the late 1980s/early 1990s, but the supporting cast has been delivering him with enough help to get them where they are. And they have a ton of playoff experience. Florida is the better team, no questions about it, and they have improved a lot over last year, when they had a surprisingly deep run. They're a very tight group and because of last year, when they were the underdogs the whole run, they'll know not to underestimate the Lightning.
I'd say the odds are 70/30 Panthers.
My prediction: Panthers in 6
Boston x Toronto
In my opinion, this has everything to be either the best or the worst series of the playoffs. Neither team is really inspiring, with Boston being the pity-point merchant, and Toronto never really being a reliable team, through the season, especially their famous core, with the exception of Matthews and Nylander. If we get the best of both teams, it'll be thrilling, and they're very evenly matched, in my opinion. Boston is deeper, better disciplined defensively, has amazing goaltending and one of the best players in the league in Pastrnak. The Leafs have a more fun team to watch, and Matthews is probably the best goalscorer in the league since Ovi's glory days. If we get the worst of each team, on the flip side, this will be the dullest series ever.
I'd favour Boston slightly, 55/45. Especially considering the decades long history of Toronto playoff chokes.
My prediction: Bruins in 7
NYR x Washington
Both series with the Metropolitan division teams are very lopsided, in my opinion, probably the two most lopsided series of the playoffs. The only scenario in which I can conceive the Capitals beating the Rangers is if injury somehow becomes a problem for the NYR. Obviously, as we learned last year, chokes can (and probably will) happen, but the difference between this series and Bruins v Panthers last season is that Florida was always a better team than their standings suggested, whereas Washington, this time, is arguably a worse team than some of the ones it beat in the race for this final wildcard spot (Flyers and Penguins).
I'd favour New York 90/10.
My prediction: Rangers in 4
Carolina x Islanders
Much of what I said above stands for this series as well. the Canes were fairly unstable through the season, but there is a reason why they were (alongside the Oilers) the top favourites to win the cup when the season started. They have depth, structure and grit. Since adding Jake Guentzel (IMO, best trade of the deadline) they've seem to have stabilized the whole team. Again, a choke might happen, but I still have them as my outright favorites to win this series.
I'd favour Carolina 80/20. The Isles have not been exactly a great team through the season, and are probably in the spot they occupy much more as a function of how bad the rest of the teams in the division are than because of how good the Islanders are.
My prediction: Hurricanes in 5
Predicted 2nd round match-ups:
Vancouver x Edmonton
Dallas x Winnipeg
Florida x Boston
NYR x Carolina
I dare not predict further than this, as momentum, rest, injuries, etc. can be a huge factor. Looking at all of the matchups and the teams in each conference, one thing for me is clear: the West is more stacked, has tougher matchups and the gap between the top playoff teams and the wildcard teams is A LOT smaller, so the chances of an upset in the Western Conference are higher. The East has some REALLY good teams (NYR, Panthers and Hurricanes), and some good teams (Leafs, Bruins), but the gap between the top and the bottom playoff teams is HUGE. If there is an upset, it'll be a major thing for the whole dynamic of the playoffs.
In my opinion, we'll have another champion coming from the West this season, and my favourites for the cup are the Oilers and the Stars.
