Kosy123
Senior Member
Ah sorry about that! Makes sense why the math seemed wrong if I didnt have that apparent.Fair enough but your adding the 13,000 - and what that represents - isn't apparent in your table so that's the disconnect...
Ah sorry about that! Makes sense why the math seemed wrong if I didnt have that apparent.Fair enough but your adding the 13,000 - and what that represents - isn't apparent in your table so that's the disconnect...
I agree, while 20,000 is a nice round number that appears within sight, there is no magic number. Actually, we had a lot more retail downtown for decades with fewer residents, so this is clearly not the only important factor.I am not sure if its as formulaic as that. In 2018 the airport opened a shopping mall in a field with zero population base. The downtown of a Metro region of 1.5 million, a major employment node, with 2 post-secondary's, where all transit lines converge should, on paper, be able to sustain something today, but we know that downtown is plagued with more than just a lack of residents that factor in to its success. So if downtown's population doubled tomorrow, it would still have all the crime, cleanliness, closures, access, parking etc... issues that exist today. More residents would potentially just mean more business for places like Unity Square.
Wihkwetowin is often cited as the city's densest neighbourhood with a population of 18,000+; it also doesn't have many of the downtown issues, yet jasper avenue through this neighbourhood is bombed out, parking lots scattered, and disjointed in its retail offerings.
I would use Wihkwetowin as a litmus test on how an increase in population downtown would impact its commercial base in attracting residential-oriented offerings like a hardware store.
Did some math since I had some time, and I got inspired after I saw that the Attainable Housing Incentive now stated that the city's goal was 19,000 residents by 2030 for downtown.
According to the 2021 census, downtown had 13,000 residents (This isn't counting for the higher vacancy rate at the time as well)
View attachment 723266
If we add in the big chunk of the openings from 2025, with 1132 units, with the assumption of 100% lease rates and the x1.58 calculation, downtown gets pushed to approximately
14,788 residents.
I'm using a x1.58 calculation on the units based on a graphic from Calgary's Downtown Office Conversions and how they calculated their estimated residents.
View attachment 723268
If we add in all the projects under construction, actively in the development permit stage, and the Warehouse Block by Autograph (which we know is going to happen), with the same assumptions once completed then downtown's residential population gets pushed to 20,092 residents.
Obviously, the math here isn't precise, and doesn't take into account vacancy rates, and a ton of other factors like projects I probably missed out pre-2025 like Augustana, but it's cool to see that the 19,000 residents by 2030 goal is within reach, and if we somehow get more momentum and projects in the next few years, then even the 24,000 goal originally put forward is also doable.
Note: I excluded the Ice Village's Phase I since it technically is outside of the designated municipal boundaries of downtown. BLVD on 108 St is also missing since we haven't seen anything there for a little bit, so I've removed it from here for the time being, along with the Standard on Jasper conversion.
I’m pretty sure your either your math or your typing the resulting number of residents is out by an awful lot…
What I'm saying is in the future, it might help to scroll up a few posts to see if there's any context you're missing rather than assume someone else made an extremely blatant error.There were 13,000 existing residents included in the chart that weren't mentioned on the chart or the post that included it which is what made in "not pretty clear". Kosy123 and I already sorted out that discrepancy above...![]()
Of course if you had done the same… perhaps in the future?What I'm saying is in the future, it might help to scroll up a few posts to see if there's any context you're missing rather than assume someone else made an extremely blatant error.
retail-insider.com
Are you suggesting that adding context is helpful so that you can understand it?There were 13,000 existing residents included in the chart that weren't mentioned on the chart or the post that included it which is what made in "not pretty clear". Kosy123 and I already sorted out that discrepancy above...![]()
While this is interesting, the article seems to be mainly or entirely about other cities. Interestingly, these issues or problems don't seem to be stopping expansion elsewhere."Despite the expansion, risks remain. Dr. Charlebois warned that urban grocery economics are complicated by crime and shrink. “Opening up stores downtown is incredibly difficult right now,” he said. Security investments and loss prevention measures can materially affect margins."
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Downtown Grocery Growth Accelerates in Canada
Downtown grocery growth in Canada accelerates as retailers expand discount and specialty stores into dense urban cores.retail-insider.com
If you are looking for a suggestion, I would suggest that context is everything.Are you suggesting that adding context is helpful so that you can understand it?
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