News   Apr 03, 2020
From the Editor: A Message to Our Readers
 9.8K     3 
News   Apr 02, 2020
Topping Off March 2020: What's Hot on SkyriseEdmonton
 11K     0 
News   Apr 02, 2020
News Roundup for April 2, 2020
 3.8K     0 

Downtown

The hours probably have something to do with how busy or not it it particularly on the weekend, as they have to pay for staff to be there when open.

I know there are people who live in buildings near by, but on the weekend it sometimes looks like a ghost town around here. It would be nice if some of them got out and did more, staying at home all the time is so 2021.
 
Did some math since I had some time, and I got inspired after I saw that the Attainable Housing Incentive now stated that the city's goal was 19,000 residents by 2030 for downtown.

According to the 2021 census, downtown had 13,000 residents (This isn't counting for the higher vacancy rate at the time as well)

1773957974962.png


If we add in the big chunk of the openings from 2025, with 1132 units, with the assumption of 100% lease rates and the x1.58 calculation, downtown gets pushed to approximately
14,788 residents.

I'm using a x1.58 calculation on the units based on a graphic from Calgary's Downtown Office Conversions and how they calculated their estimated residents.

1773958246254.png


If we add in all the projects under construction, actively in the development permit stage, and the Warehouse Block by Autograph (which we know is going to happen), with the same assumptions once completed then downtown's residential population gets pushed to 20,092 residents.

Obviously, the math here isn't precise, and doesn't take into account vacancy rates, and a ton of other factors like projects I probably missed out pre-2025 like Augustana, but it's cool to see that the 19,000 residents by 2030 goal is within reach, and if we somehow get more momentum and projects in the next few years, then even the 24,000 goal originally put forward is also doable.

Note: I excluded the Ice Village's Phase I since it technically is outside of the designated municipal boundaries of downtown. BLVD on 108 St is also missing since we haven't seen anything there for a little bit, so I've removed it from here for the time being, along with the Standard on Jasper conversion.
 

Attachments

  • 1773957817730.png
    1773957817730.png
    61.3 KB · Views: 10
  • 1773957927109.png
    1773957927109.png
    9.9 KB · Views: 7
Based on what Ian said, I did some more math on x1.3, and also x1.7 for funsies, and got these numbers out.

Number of Unitsx1.3 calculation (Realistic)x1.58 calculation (Calgary Office Conversion Graphic)x1.7 (Wildly optimistic)
Recently Opened: 1132 units14,471 residents14,788 residents14,924 residents
Adding In DP or Construction Stage3357 units18,835 residents20,092 residents20,630 residents
 
Kosy123 said:
Based on what Ian said, I did some more math on x1.3, and also x1.7 for funsies, and got these numbers out.

Number of Unitsx1.3 calculation (Realistic)x1.58 calculation (Calgary Office Conversion Graphic)x1.7 (Wildly optimistic)
Recently Opened:1132 units14,471 residents14,788 residents14,924 residents
Adding In DP or Construction Stage3357 units18,835 residents20,092 residents20,630 residents
Click to expand...
I’m pretty sure your either your math or your typing the resulting number of residents is out by an awful lot…
 
kcantor said:
I’m pretty sure your either your math or your typing the resulting number of residents is out by an awful lot…
Click to expand...
How so? I had the original base number at 13,000 which was the census population in 2021.

First row I just multiplied the number of units opened by the four main projects that opened the last two years which was 1132 (Parks, Switch, Peak and Falcon I) by the multipliers (1.3, 1.58, 1.7) and added the number to the original 13,000.

Second row I just did the same thing, but added that number to the existing first row, which accounted for the 1132 units already added.

Obviously this assumes 100% occupancy and though which isn’t going to be the case.
 
David A said:
Likely close to 20,000 residents, which is a good increase from the 13,000 in 2021.
Click to expand...
How many DT residents would we likely need to support a larger commercial base, particularly in off-peak hours, and attract residential-oriented commercial (e.g., a hardware store or an Ikea)? I know people gave a ballpark estimate before but I can't recall what it was.
 
I am not sure if its as formulaic as that. In 2018 the airport opened a shopping mall in a field with zero population base. The downtown of a Metro region of 1.5 million, a major employment node, with 2 post-secondary's, where all transit lines converge should, on paper, be able to sustain something today, but we know that downtown is plagued with more than just a lack of residents that factor in to its success. So if downtown's population doubled tomorrow, it would still have all the crime, cleanliness, closures, access, parking etc... issues that exist today. More residents would potentially just mean more business for places like Unity Square.

Wihkwetowin is often cited as the city's densest neighbourhood with a population of 18,000+; it also doesn't have many of the downtown issues, yet jasper avenue through this neighbourhood is bombed out, parking lots scattered, and disjointed in its retail offerings.

I would use Wihkwetowin as a litmus test on how an increase in population downtown would impact its commercial base in attracting residential-oriented offerings like a hardware store.
 
Kosy123 said:
How so? I had the original base number at 13,000 which was the census population in 2021.

First row I just multiplied the number of units opened by the four main projects that opened the last two years which was 1132 (Parks, Switch, Peak and Falcon I) by the multipliers (1.3, 1.58, 1.7) and added the number to the original 13,000.

Second row I just did the same thing, but added that number to the existing first row, which accounted for the 1132 units already added.

Obviously this assumes 100% occupancy and though which isn’t going to be the case.
Click to expand...
Fair enough but your adding the 13,000 - and what that represents - isn't apparent in your table so that's the disconnect...
 
Ohman said:
I am not sure if its as formulaic as that. In 2018 the airport opened a shopping mall in a field with zero population base. The downtown of a Metro region of 1.5 million, a major employment node, with 2 post-secondary's, where all transit lines converge should, on paper, be able to sustain something today, but we know that downtown is plagued with more than just a lack of residents that factor in to its success. So if downtown's population doubled tomorrow, it would still have all the crime, cleanliness, closures, access, parking etc... issues that exist today. More residents would potentially just mean more business for places like Unity Square.

Wihkwetowin is often cited as the city's densest neighbourhood with a population of 18,000+; it also doesn't have many of the downtown issues, yet jasper avenue through this neighbourhood is bombed out, parking lots scattered, and disjointed in its retail offerings.

I would use Wihkwetowin as a litmus test on how an increase in population downtown would impact its commercial base in attracting residential-oriented offerings like a hardware store.
Click to expand...
I agree, while 20,000 is a nice round number that appears within sight, there is no magic number. Actually, we had a lot more retail downtown for decades with fewer residents, so this is clearly not the only important factor.

More people are working downtown again, but compared to other cities our size we are still weak, so it would help if some focus could be put on attracting more new jobs located downtown and increasing economic activity in the area.

As for crime, I have heard more about this in suburban malls than downtown lately, however social disorder while diminishing considerably is still visible. The parking obstacles put in place in recent years were very badly timed in my opinion coming after COVID and while some of the construction has been completed, there still are parts of downtown where this a big concern.

Of course the world is never going to be perfect, we have to work on all of these thing to try improve downtown.
 
You must log in or register to post here.

Back
Top