Valley Line LRT/ Valley Line West | ?m | ?s | City of Edmonton

cliffapotamus · Apr 2, 2021

CplKlinger said:
"Valley Line LRT requires additional $7.2 million over next three years to meet ridership demand"

Valley Line LRT requires additional $7.2 million over next three years to meet ridership demand

The city is calling for service to be ramped up to level eight when the 13-kilometre line from Downtown to Mill Woods opens later this year.

edmontonjournal.com

I'm betting it was bad forecasting done early on, and/or the left hand not talking to the right in terms of the LRT project team not being aware of the BNR team routing a bunch of new routes onto the LRT in larger volumes than the previous network would have. I can easily conceive of how an oversight like that would happen, given how the projects are being managed so separately from one another; but that doesn't make it any less frustrating that the (presumably very extensive) demand forecasting and trip planning done by the BNR team wasn't used to inform Valley Line decisions.
This article doesn't have a lot of actual data or sources in it, and the journalist didn't post anything on twitter about this. a cursory google search brought up nothing current, just the EJ article and content from the line's approval in 2016. one thing to note from that content is that ridership is usally listed around 30-35k a day, whereas more current content lists 45-50k. I mean, it's all just press stuff, not technical content or official numbers, but it indicates how predictions have been... 'fluid' throughout the planning process.
I do think this line is gonna be surprisingly well-used; i know next to nothing about how to forecast ridership but the most recent numbers (from Daveography's Q and A post a couple months ago) of 45k people a day on opening day for just this leg sounds reasonable. Covid may change that for the first year or two, but as patterns and routines adjust i think this will be well-used.

Edmcowboy11 · Apr 2, 2021

Well considering that ETS has essentially eliminated every route from Millwoods to downtown and created routes to feed the LRT to be the main route to downtown, it's no surprise this announcement was made.

One way to solve this issue is to uncancel the #81 and have the #8 continue its route as it is, or slightly modified.

Cumberland · Apr 3, 2021

I remember thinking a couple years ago that 26 trains wouldn't be enough, and that we'd probably need to be running all two-car consists at peak right from the get-go. I think with even half the trains being two cars, people wanting to board at Bonnie Doon and north will be experiencing pass-by in the morning. Covid may have dropped demand a bit, but it also means that crowding is something we would want to be avoiding. I think they underestimated opening day demand from the start with this line.

The_Cat · Apr 3, 2021

A lot of the downtown routes to Mill Woods take 83 and 86 Streets en route to Mill Woods. Perhaps keep these routes until the LRT opens.

David A · Apr 3, 2021

TAS said:
Maybe it's just me or partly the way this story is written but I find this article confusing - we need an extra $7.2 million to accommodate a ridership level that wasn't initially expected for 22 years! And the city is coming to that conclusion now?

I don't think it is just you, that is how I read it too. Somehow they just figured that out now. What were they in a rip van winkle state for the last several years and suddenly just came to this realization?

Kaizen · Apr 3, 2021

From yesterday afternoon around Churchill station.

Edmcowboy11 · Apr 4, 2021

I hope that some of the fencing can me moved or taken down to allow more pedestrian traffic through sooner than later.

IanO · Apr 4, 2021

I doubt that we will see much change until after testing/commissioning/handover.

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Screen Shot 2021-04-04 at 8.57.59 AM.png

IanO · Apr 4, 2021

A reminder of what it will look like from above.

Screen Shot 2021-04-04 at 11.31.43 AM.png

https://www.edmonton.ca/documents/RoadsTraffic/valley_line_lrt_booklet.pdf

The_Cat · Apr 5, 2021

I hope that the entrance to the Churchill LRT station can be opened up as coronavirus recedes.

IanO · Apr 5, 2021

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