Downtown Real Estate

[policyenthusiast]

This picture means nothing. There are thousands of more units downtown vs riverbend for example. Doesn’t mean riverbend has high demand, there’s simply low supply there.

Downtown has supply and low prices, and yet no one is moving there. So why would we not build affordable housing where people want to be?

If anything, the welfare approach to housing construction (and the concentration of low-income residents to Downtown) is a detractor to commercial investment.

 

[thommyjo]

Downtown has supply and low prices, and yet no one is moving there. So why would we not build affordable housing where people want to be?

If anything, the welfare approach to housing construction (and the concentration of low-income residents to Downtown) is a detractor to commercial investment.

Downtown has the highest average rental prices. What do you mean “low prices”?

I think you need to review some data to recalibrate your perspectives. “Low income residents” are the ones filling up Sky residences, parks, Falcon, switch, sync 111, CX, legends, and thousands of other condos being rented by owners for well over $1800/month??

 

[policyenthusiast]

Downtown has the highest average rental prices. What do you mean “low prices”?

I think you need to review some data to recalibrate your perspectives. “Low income residents” are the ones filling up Sky residences, parks, Falcon, switch, sync 111, CX, legends, and thousands of other condos being rented by owners for well over $1800/month??

I could provide the chart which I've already shown in the past showing constant value declines of DT residences since 2009, or I could link the CMHC's average rent by neighborhood by bedroom type showing that Downtown does not have the highest prices, CMHC data showing vacancy rates, or I could show the CoE map listing the city-supported affordable housing developments by neighbourhood, or I could show the CBRE reports demonstrating sustained weakness of economic investment of downtown CRE.

I believe that new supply should be where supply is lacking. Downtown supply is not lacking. You are free to disagree with both or either of those points, and it is not my duty to convert you.

 

[kcantor]

Not mutually exclusive and given that our Downtown continues to lag behind the rest of Canada's big cities, it can use all of the help it can get (for now).

There’s a big difference between actual help today and simply giving up future tax dollars from 2029 to 2039 for no real impact today.

It’s past decisions like this from previous councils and administrations that are a larger part of what is financially hamstringing our current council.

 

[Kosy123]

Got curious with all this conversation on the rental market talk, so I dived into the CMHC's Housing Market Portal to take a look.

For comparison purposes, here's the data for the City, and a few select neighbourhoods by Census Tract (when available)

Downtown Edmonton as a neighbourhood seems to be on par and slightly lower with rental rates in the newer suburbs in the Southeast and Southwest. However the neighbourhood region includes a massive chunk of Boyle Street, which probably depresses overall asking rental rates due to the older rental stock in these areas. Makes sense.

Situation becomes much different once we focus on the Census Tract which is mostly located in the municipal boundaries of downtown.

Downtown Edmonton, when defined by boundaries closer to what we see municipally, shoots up to have one of the highest average rental rates in the city for 1 bedroom units, and is easily the highest area in the city for 2 bedroom units. Considering this is where most of the newer units with better amenities we have popping up in downtown, that checks out.

Pretty big contrast in comparison to the southern end of downtown and Rossdale where average rental rates drop significantly, probably due to older rental stock.

.

 

[policyenthusiast]

Got curious with all this conversation on the rental market talk, so I dived into the CMHC's Housing Market Portal to take a look.

View attachment 716618


For comparison purposes, here's the data for the City, and a few select neighbourhoods by Census Tract (when available)
View attachment 716620
View attachment 716621
View attachment 716623
View attachment 716624
View attachment 716625

Downtown Edmonton as a neighbourhood seems to be on par and slightly lower with rental rates in the newer suburbs in the Southeast and Southwest. However the neighbourhood region includes a massive chunk of Boyle Street, which probably depresses overall asking rental rates due to the older rental stock in these areas. Makes sense.

Situation becomes much different once we focus on the Census Tract which is mostly located in the municipal boundaries of downtown.
View attachment 716619
Downtown Edmonton, when defined by boundaries closer to what we see municipally, shoots up to have one of the highest average rental rates in the city for 1 bedroom units, and is easily the highest area in the city for 2 bedroom units. Considering this is where most of the newer units with better amenities we have popping up in downtown, that checks out.

Pretty big contrast in comparison to the southern end of downtown and Rossdale where average rental rates drop significantly, probably due to older rental stock.
View attachment 716627
.

Great analysis. I question excluding Boyle St's older rentals due to the downward pressure on averages without also excluding luxury condos due to the upward pressure, but still. Unless these prices are median and not mean values, in which case the difference is likely nominal.

 

[Glenco]

There’s a big difference between actual help today and simply giving up future tax dollars from 2029 to 2039 for no real impact today.

It’s past decisions like this from previous councils and administrations that are a larger part of what is financially hamstringing our current council.

I think (sometimes) that they are counting on other new developments in the downtown to offset the tax deferral. Here’s hoping

 

[Kosy123]

Great analysis. I question excluding Boyle St's older rentals due to the downward pressure on averages without also excluding luxury condos due to the upward pressure, but still. Unless these prices are median and not mean values, in which case the difference is likely nominal.

I honestly wish there was a downtown centric, easy to see database for downtown statistics. I know the Downtown Investment Plan said they had KPIs to meet, but are they going to be publicly released once that gets going? Who knows.

 

[kcantor]

I honestly wish there was a downtown centric, easy to see database for downtown statistics. I know the Downtown Investment Plan said they had KPIs to meet, but are they going to bSometimee publicly released once that gets going? Who knows.

Sometimes the cynic in me thinks these things aren't readily available - either statistics or KPI's - because that would also introduce accountability.

And then we get to convolute things even more by ever-changing vernacular - homelessness to houselessness, affordable housing to attainable housing etc. - and the use of different or changing boundaries.

 

[policyenthusiast]

Sometimes the cynic in me thinks these things aren't readily available - either statistics or KPI's - because that would also introduce accountability.

And then we get to convolute things even more by ever-changing vernacular - homelessness to houselessness, affordable housing to attainable housing etc. - and the use of different or changing boundaries.

Likely a similar situation happening in the Bank of Canada. They keep changing the benchmarks to maintain the illusion of a resilient economy, because recognizing economic weakness would disincentivize investment, further making economic weakness a problem.

 

[thommyjo]

Got curious with all this conversation on the rental market talk, so I dived into the CMHC's Housing Market Portal to take a look.

View attachment 716618


For comparison purposes, here's the data for the City, and a few select neighbourhoods by Census Tract (when available)
View attachment 716620
View attachment 716621
View attachment 716623
View attachment 716624
View attachment 716625

Downtown Edmonton as a neighbourhood seems to be on par and slightly lower with rental rates in the newer suburbs in the Southeast and Southwest. However the neighbourhood region includes a massive chunk of Boyle Street, which probably depresses overall asking rental rates due to the older rental stock in these areas. Makes sense.

Situation becomes much different once we focus on the Census Tract which is mostly located in the municipal boundaries of downtown.
View attachment 716619
Downtown Edmonton, when defined by boundaries closer to what we see municipally, shoots up to have one of the highest average rental rates in the city for 1 bedroom units, and is easily the highest area in the city for 2 bedroom units. Considering this is where most of the newer units with better amenities we have popping up in downtown, that checks out.

Pretty big contrast in comparison to the southern end of downtown and Rossdale where average rental rates drop significantly, probably due to older rental stock.
View attachment 716627
.

Yeah, i don’t think rossdale and boyle street are downtown. If anything, going west of 109st best represent downtown rentals, potentially all the way to 124st. I think 105ave, 100st as boundaries tells a very different story. (Pearl, citizen, promenade condos, Macleran, etc are all prettymuch downtown and luxury).

And when you factor in how most of the suburban areas don’t even have “old stock” yet, the contrast is even higher.

If you compared rents based on year built, and especially if you factored in sqft, not just bdrms, you’d see downtown way above any suburban areas.

Which is why any claims of downtown have low rates and low income residents feels beyond disconnected from reality.

 

[Oilers99]

Downtown rents are sluggish and that’s why projects are now much smaller (6 and 7 storey buildings). Rents in suburban Edmonton are very comparable to downtown and from a return standpoint due to reduced land costs sometimes pencil better.

 

[kcantor]

Downtown rents are sluggish and that’s why projects are now much smaller (6 and 7 storey buildings). Rents in suburban Edmonton are very comparable to downtown and from a return standpoint due to reduced land costs sometimes pencil better.

Except...

A concrete high rise project starting today - acquisition or even if just design if the site is already owned - isn't likely to be completed until 2029.taking into account permitting and approvals as well as construction. That means that current sluggish rents are only one factor and probably not as large a factor as vacancy rates.

What is important to the developer are stability of construction costs, the availability of financing, a comfort level with the direction of the economy, and population growth.

I would posit that while the first two of these are reaching a point where they are manageable, the last two are becoming more and more uncertain. In this regard, it's not just a matter of international and national uncertainty (Canada's attractiveness as a country remains and there is a quiet confidence in Carney's directions nationally) but there is increasing concern at the provincial level regarding the province's attractiveness as a destination for capital and the the province's potential for population in-migration as opposed to out-migration in response to the UCP's management of the economy, health-care, education, potential separation upheaval and in-migration barriers.

 

[Canadian 001]

Falcon II, Switch II and The clifton are currently the top candidates of starting up in the next 1-2 years

Plus the Student Housing incentive, the Attainable Homes Incentive AND the infrastructure Upgrade fund could spur even more

And then there is Parks II which might be a little later in 2027-2028,


At least it's not the Mid 1990s where there was a pretty major lull in high rise construction after the 1970s-1980s boom, then A few modest towers got built in the later 1990s
But then the 2000s boom happened

Then A Taper off in 2009-2011 followed shortly by the major 2013-2017 boom which saw the Stantec tower Built, along with a plethora of other towers start up (Fox I and II, Ultima, Encore, Etc)

The First mini boom in 2019-2020 where The Citizen on Jasper, The View, CX, Glenora Park, Beacon @ East Junction as ugly as it is, 121 west and Norwood Capital Care all started

Then the mini boom in 2021-2023 where the Laurent and Eleanor, Parks I, Falcon I, Switch I, Hat @ Old Strathcona, The Edward Block, And Hat @ Oliver all started

2024 and 2025 were slower years for new starts (Other than Macewan School of Business and like 50 mid rises)

But one thing I noticed is currently there are Zero Tower Cranes in Central Edmonton (That will Likely change later this year) as projects are either wrapping up (School of Business, Lotus Park), are Just getting Started (Lilac Park, Westrich 106 project) or are starting soon (Clifton, Falcon 2, Switch 2, More Westrich projects, Another Leston Project or 2)

Sorry for yapping your ears off

 

[bodsbods9090]

No need to be sorry @Canadian 001
You're one of the people on here who have know what's going on.