Actually both the polls post-Kenney's resignation announcement show the UCP leading, albeit just barely (
1,
2). They also both show what are, in my opinion, unrealistically high polling numbers for the WIP. For context back in 2019, Fildebrandt's Freedom Conservative Party would occasionally poll 3%, they ended up with 0.5% in the actual election.
None of this is meant to be a judgment on the merit of the NDP, just that I'm skeptical the current political situation is favourable enough for them to win.