2021/22 Edmonton Oilers

[IanO]

We needed some veteran presence in the room and on the ice, stability and someone who has the experience to help deliver something in the post-season for 2021-2022/23 or risk someone getting upset and wanting to leave, period.

Don't love it, but it was needed.

 

[JayYEG]

Absolutely needed, I just wish we could have gotten at least some salary retention considering they came to us and Keith wanted out. Plus, I like Caleb Jones

 

[Glenco]

Well.. for those who have been following the latest news on the Oilers, Duncan Keith is now an Oiler. We give up Caleb Jones (a promising young defenceman of ours) and a third round pick. Also, NO salary will be retained, meaning we will be paying Keith $5.5 million for the next two years of prime McDavid and Draisaitl years.. I am not happy about this, especially since we had all the leverage in this deal. Chicago came to us, Keith wanted out. The Caleb Jones part wouldn't have stung so much if we had gotten AT LEAST 50% salary retention, but that's a big waste of cap space for the prime years of McDavid and Draisaitl to win now. I'm really disappointed in Holland. I don't mind Keith and I think he gives us good veteran leadership and experience, but he's turning 38 in a few days and has been declining for a little while now. He's not the same player as the dynasty Chicago days. I would have expected this kind of move from Peter Chiarelli, but Holland? I had more faith in him. But I suppose we will have to wait and see how this turns out. Maybe it will help more than I think (We can only hope). My biggest gripe is the massive salary we have to pay him, losing a promising defender like Jones (though we might have lost him to Seattle anyway) and that we had the leverage in this deal and STILL got fleeced. That said, I welcome Keith's experience and leadership. He should definitely help in that area, plus, he may arguably be better and play more (at the moment) than Jones, but definitely not long term.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1414654449788796934

In all likelihood we would have lost Jones in the expansion draft now we have to expose someone else as Keith has a no trade clause. The oilers were in the driver’s seat and yet the couldn’t get Chicago to retain salary? This is insanity. How do they plan on signing a winger for McDavid? Now they absolutely have to buy out James Neal yet another albatross around their necks going forward.

 

[erudyk_29]

This is one of the worst decisions I've seen and I've seen a lot as an Oilers fan. I honestly have no idea what Holland was thinking here. I actually wouldn't be so crazy angry about this trade if it wasn't for the salary (It still would've been bad but not so terrible). Jones is better and younger than Keith and I understand wanting to get something for him rather than just losing him but seriously? A 37 year old with a bad contract who isn't good Adv Stats or regular stats. I would rather lose Jones for nothing than add 5+ million for two years. The only value Keith brings to this team is veteran leadership which we easily could have gotten in free-agency, plus have a player that is still a good defenseman. Oleksiak for 4 million or Savard for 5 bring similar intangibles while actually being able to play the game. This was our make or break offseason to get deeper and move from a playoff team to a cup contender and now our chance is gone. Time to add another 2 years to the rebuild. How are we going to seriously upgrade this team this offseason and sign Nurse next year if we're just throwing cap around like this? We also need to sign Yamamoto, Larsson and Smith btw. We had 16 million in cap space - around 5 that's 11. Yamo will cost 3,5 to 4 so 7 million left, Larsson will cost 5-6 million so 2 or 3 million left and if you sign a goalie there's all your cap space gone for the offseason. Even if we can do something with Koskinen or Neal we're still adding only 2-3 million so what you get Barclay Goodrow and a 3rd string goalie? Ken Holland better hope to hell that Dylan Holloway, Cooper Marody and the Bakersfield gang area ready to play in the NHL next year or we're going to have ZERO forward depth next year.

 

[IanO]

Neal and/or Kassian will now have to go one way or another.

Salary retention of 1-2 should have been in play here...

 

[Edmontonian]

This is an awful trade, something I would expect from Chiarelli.

Holland is on his way to solidifying himself as a bottom 10 GM in the league. With Chiarelli 9/10 moves were a bad move, with Holland its about 1/2, the issue is to win you need a GM who makes the right move 9/10 times running the team. In this day and age you also need good pro scouts and an analytics department supporting a good GM who makes the right move far more often than not... the Oilers have none of this.

This is some background, Duncan Keith is a veteran player, he has a lot of milage, 2 Norris trophies, 3 Stanley cups and a Conn Smythe. None of those accolades are within the last 6 years, and he is about to turn 38 years old. His family is from BC and he has a no movement clause, basically he gets to choose where he goes, and he said he only want to play in Seattle, Vancouver, Edmonton or Calgary because it's close to home. Edmonton was the only team in the running to trade for him out of those 4, Chicago wants to free up cap to go for a #1 defensemen this offseason, Duncan Keith has an awful buyout so they couldn't go that route, the Chicago Blackhawks absolute only option to go forward with their plans was to trade Duncan Keith to the Edmonton Oilers. WE HAD ALL THE LEVERAGE IN THE WORLD.

First I wanted to say a quick thing about advanced analytics, it is an extremely useful tool however its not the end all be all, things Keith provides such as confidence and leadership are very important however not using advanced analytics is just a way of putting yourself at a disadvantage. There is a reason that over the last 2 years specifically, where analytics have become big in hockey, the teams who use them are presidents trophy winners, divisional champions, cup favourites and of course in the Tampa Bay Lightnings case back-to-back cup champions, over the next few years I see this trend continuing at an even stronger level. Meanwhile teams who don't use analytics consistently underachieve or simply are at the bottom of the league because their rosters are bad. I understand that some people aren't a fan of analytics because their old school hockey guys but its completely arrogant to overlook them, just as it is ignorant to think they are the end all be all and numbers on a chart are the only thing that matters. It is a useful tool, an advancement in hockey, and failing to adopt it is putting us behind and making it difficult for us to compete with teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado, Carolina and others who all use them.

Now for the trade in general, let's focus in on Duncan Keith. Analytically, he was one of the worst defensemen in the NHL, his team had better scoring ratios and other statistics when he was sitting on the bench, basically saying that mathematically the Chicago Blackhawks would've had a better season had Keith not played at all. Now the numbers don't lie, I can't simply say thats wrong because it isn't, the Chicago Blackhawks did play better hockey when Duncan Keith was sitting on the bench rather than when he was on the ice. However the context behind that is Chicagos coach has a very poor defensive structure, Keith plays top pairing minutes against tough competition which at his age he is not built for, and he constantly changes line mates among other things. I don't think Keith is a bottom 10 defensemen in the league, however I do believe he is a below average defender at this point in his career and he is only getting worse. We also acquired some prospect in the trade, he's never going to crack an NHL roster, he was just thrown in there as some extra value.

In return we gave up Caleb Jones, who in my eyes is also a below average defender who was only going to get better. I think that Duncan Keith as a player is better than Caleb Jones, and he also has that experience and leadership to guide our team, however in the year 2021 Duncan Keith isn't a huge improvement over Caleb Jones... and on top of that we gave them a 3rd round pick.

This is what makes this trade so bad, in my opinion it makes a top 20 list for worst trades in the last 5 years. The Chicago Blackhawks retained 0 salary and took none of our bad contracts back, which means we are paying Duncan Keith 5.538 million FOR THE NEXT 2 YEARS. HE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN CALEB JONES AND WE ARE PAYING HIM 4.7 MILLION MORE ON A TEAM THAT ALREADY HAS JAMES NEAL AT 5.75 MILLION AND MIKKO KOSKINEN AT 4.5 MILLION. THATS 16 MILLION DOLLARS IN CAP SPACE, 20% OF OUR CAP SPACE, 1/5 OF THIS TEAMS CAP SPACE TO BUILD OUR ROSTER IS BEING USED ON PRACTICALLY NOTHING. A FIFTH OF IT.

In summary...
The Edmonton Oilers on paper got slightly better and added an experienced cup champion to the team to mentor our boys
We also added on 4.7 million in cap space which could've been used to improve a different part of the team, so if you take back Caleb Jones and 4.7 million we can build a better roster... so basically the Oilers got worse...
We also gave up a 3rd when we don't have much draft capital, 3rd round picks are very useful at the trade deadline to acquire decent depth pieces.
Just for a kicker if the Oilers manage to make the Stanley Cup Final next year the pick becomes a 2nd rounder because why not.
Duncan Keith also has a NMC, which means we have to protect him in the Seattle Expansion Draft, so even with Caleb Jones gone Klefbom is still left exposed (which if okay cause he is far from ready) but now Adam Larsson can't be re-signed ahead of the expansion draft so we risk losing him completely.

If you were wondering what my Keith trade would look like... IT WOULDN'T EXIST. I WOULD'VE SEEN THIS PROPOSAL, LAUGHED IN CHICAGOS FACE AND WALKED AWAY BECAUSE HOLLAND HAD THE OPTION TO DO THAT.

If I HAD to trade for Keith I would say Caleb Jones and a 4th for Keith 50% retained, or nothing for Keiths full contract and Chicago gives me a 2nd round pick to take him because I am doing them a favour.

The most annoying part of this for a young 18 year old such as myself, who wants to see Connor McDavid lift the cup in an Edmonton Oilers jersey is all our old aged media and our old GM say "veteran leadership" over and over again. THIS IS A MASSIVE PRICE TO PAY FOR "VETERAN LEADERSHIP". IT'S IMPORTANT BUT GOOD TEAMS ACQUIRE VETERAN LEADERSHIP FOR LEAGUE MINIMUM DURING FREE AGENCY NOT AT A 5.538 MILLION DOLLAR PRICE TAG AND A LOSS OF ASSETS. If you wanted to pay this much money for veteran leadership then pay it for a guy like Alec Martinez, who is a very good top 4 LD at the age of 34 and is a former 2 time cup champion. Thats what good teams do, they either pay a high price tag like 5.538 million for veteran leadership that is effective and really helps their team win or if they are paying for veteran leadership and not much else they go for guys in free agency at a 700k-1mil price tag.

Not my most professional post, but thats what I have to say about it, awful trade, just as things are looking up this team finds a way to shoot themselves in the foot, I think it will be difficult to build a strong contending roster with this many poor contracts on the team for the next 1-2 years.

 

[Glenco]

Watch the presser. Holland is so defensive and says words to the affect that he didn’t want to fleece the other GM. Ken you got fleeced.

 

[IanO]

Holy defensive Ken.

'nobody knows' - that's how I like to spend over 5mil on someone.

 

[kcantor]

i for one am quite prepared to wait for two years before assessing this one and am reasonably hopeful that on balance it would turn out to be a good trade for the oilers in regard to individual performance, team performance and financially.

i would also like to note that keith was in full control of where he went and it was going to be vancouver or seattle or calgary (not necessarily in that order) if not edmonton.

one of the things that doesn't seem to be part of the conversation - and perhaps should be - is that not only is there a benefit to having acquired keith, there's probably a benefit when it comes to team performance not to have play against him every time vancouver or seattle or calgary is the opposing team and that - if you assign anything at all to his ability to play and compete for the next two years - also has value.

 

[Glenco]

i for one am quite prepared to wait for two years before assessing this one and am reasonably hopeful that on balance it would turn out to be a good trade for the oilers in regard to individual performance, team performance and financially.

i would also like to note that keith was in full control of where he went and it was going to be vancouver or seattle or calgary (not necessarily in that order) if not edmonton.

one of the things that doesn't seem to be part of the conversation - and perhaps should be - is that not only is there a benefit to having acquired keith, there's probably a benefit when it comes to team performance not to have play against him every time vancouver or seattle or calgary is the opposing team and that - if you assign anything at all to his ability to play and compete for the next two years - also has value.

No one is arguing he can bring some value to the team just not $5.5mil value at his age What other assets will the oilers have to miss out on with such a high cap hit? A left winger for McDavid? A third line centre? A goalie? Plus what future prospect will we regret giving up AGAIN by tossing draft picks around like they are confetti? Surely, surely the draft pick should have come the other way considering Chicago is getting a prospect and cap relief to the oiler s detriment. The Oilers payed way to high a price it was an act of desperation on Holland’s part he could have waited for Chic to buy him out and signed him as a free agent at a much lower cap hit as by all accounts it was Edmonton the preferred choice. This makes Oilers fans feel like a bunch of hicks who have been fleeced by a big city huckster.

 

[IanO]

It's being compared to Chia dealmaking by the vast majority of 'hockey experts'.

 

[kcantor]

No one is arguing he can bring some value to the team just not $5.5mil value at his age What other assets will the oilers have to miss out on with such a high cap hit? A left winger for McDavid? A third line centre? A goalie? Plus what future prospect will we regret giving up AGAIN by tossing draft picks around like they are confetti? Surely, surely the draft pick should have come the other way considering Chicago is getting a prospect and cap relief to the oiler s detriment. The Oilers payed way to high a price it was an act of desperation on Holland’s part he could have waited for Chic to buy him out and signed him as a free agent at a much lower cap hit as by all accounts it was Edmonton the preferred choice. This makes Oilers fans feel like a bunch of hicks who have been fleeced by a big city huckster.

i'm not the "hockey expert", just a fan who's been a fan for a long time (and frustrated for a good long part of that time going back to how the nhl treated the team when they joined).

my point here was that maybe keith is worth closer to 3.5 than 5.5 (although to be honest that kind of pay scale on an annual basis remains more than a bit outside of my comprehension even with the comparables to entertainers and high level executives etc.). my "add on" to that was how much is worth not to have him on calgary's (or vancouver's or seattles) bench for say 2 exhibition games, 3 regular season games and (hopefully) 4 playoff games? 7 games at 300k a game is $2.1Million plus the potential cost of advancing or not advancing for another playoff round? if you do believe keith even at a lower salary is capable of being in impact player, what's it worth not play against him knowing all of his acceptable other teams are your rival teams?

and for those saying this is "chia deal-making" at it's worst, isn't that exactly what was said about last year's signing of mike smith at 38?

 

[IanO]

I'm not so sure anyone is worried about playing against Keith at this stage in his career, but there certainly could be value of playing with him. That said, Smith was an extremely risky move and one to backstop the failed M.K. experiment.

I like Keith, believe we need more veteran leadership in the room and someone who is a winner that needs to demand more from much of the team. But we continue to have depth issues and deals like this compromise real change in that department.

 

[Glenco]

i'm not the "hockey expert", just a fan who's been a fan for a long time (and frustrated for a good long part of that time going back to how the nhl treated the team when they joined).

my point here was that maybe keith is worth closer to 3.5 than 5.5 (although to be honest that kind of pay scale on an annual basis remains more than a bit outside of my comprehension even with the comparables to entertainers and high level executives etc.). my "add on" to that was how much is worth not to have him on calgary's (or vancouver's or seattles) bench for say 2 exhibition games, 3 regular season games and (hopefully) 4 playoff games? 7 games at 300k a game is $2.1Million plus the potential cost of advancing or not advancing for another playoff round? if you do believe keith even at a lower salary is capable of being in impact player, what's it worth not play against him knowing all of his acceptable other teams are your rival teams?

and for those saying this is "chia deal-making" at it's worst, isn't that exactly what was said about last year's signing of mike smith at 38?

Mike Smith was $1mil cap hit.

 

[TAS]

The Oilers have choked the last two years and didn't qualify for post season the two years (or one?) before that. I think they were leading in three of the four games they lost against the Jets.

They didn't keep some of their character guys like Maroon who has won 3 Stanley Cups since and who was on the Oilers the last time we won a series.

There's not a lot of playoff and big game success experience on this team and for this group of players and the dynamics of that dressing room, this may be an important piece in their success - even if it's less for Keith's on ice performance as the leadership/character role he may play.