Glenco
Senior Member
Rumour has it she could call an early election. What are the odds
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Alberta Politics
- Thread starter ION
- Start date
The_Cat
Senior Member
There won’t be any election called until the labour situations are resolved.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
At-or-near zero. The PC/UCP always "shape up" during an election year, and they are not doing great in the public eye right now. It could cause a forfeit of their majority for no notable gain.
David A
Senior Member
Well there was the PC Prentice exception, but probably even the UCP learned from that. So yeah, probably no early election, there are a lot of messes to try fix now.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
I could be proven wrong in the near future - hearing quite a bit from NDP reps about a potential snap election.
David A
Senior Member
The UCP may be afraid of the PC's making a comeback, but I am not sure a snap election will help avoid that.
SarcasticMarmot
Active Member
The only scenario that would have made remote sense for Smith to do is if she wanted to go nuclear to get a mandate to crush AUPE/HSAA/ATA. But with AUPE and HSAA basically folding to the government (our unions are cowardly) there is no need. The NDP reps are living in a dreamland that calls into question their grasp of reality.
David A
Senior Member
I think parties sometimes float this sort of thing to try to motivate and keep volunteers and supporters ready just in case, which is not a bad thing.
However, this can also end up being like the boy who cried wolf too many times and start to undermine their credibility.
Glenco
Senior Member
Just watched The Numbers broadcast on YouTube. Apparently DS’s approval rating is declining a bit but still at 46% so Philippe said he would not be surprised if there was an early election in Alberta. I’m on the fence but I don’t think the chances are zero.
policyenthusiast
Senior Member
Working in the semi-political sphere, I think that another snap election would literally kill me.
The famously impartial Calgary Herald predicts a snap election would resolve favorably for the UCP. https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/c...erta-snap-election-tempting-for-premier-smith
"There’s a fine line for the premier between standing up for Alberta and giving outright backing for a push to leave Canada. The first is a winning electoral strategy; the second could spell the demise of Smith’s political career. Heck, even before the public got to vote on separation, the not-really-so-united Conservative party would probably split apart if the premier publicly urged a yes vote.
A snap fall election dodges that bullet. Or at least delays it. Smith can ask for a strong mandate to make one final push to convince Ottawa that our province needs support and respect."
David A
Senior Member
So it seems the argument for a snap election is that things will only get worse for Smith and the UCP. This may well be true if Albertans are tiring of Smiths divisiveness and pandering to separatists.
However, I suspect they are are too arrogant and overconfident to realize what may happen at the point and are hopeful they can turn it around. If not, I suspect the UCP will do what they did last time and change leaders before the next election, put on a big under new management sign and pretend all the problems over the last few years were caused by someone else and had nothing to do with them. Heck, it worked last time.
However, I suspect they are are too arrogant and overconfident to realize what may happen at the point and are hopeful they can turn it around. If not, I suspect the UCP will do what they did last time and change leaders before the next election, put on a big under new management sign and pretend all the problems over the last few years were caused by someone else and had nothing to do with them. Heck, it worked last time.
Glenco
Senior Member
It would be typical of the conservatives in Alberta to show the hypocrisy by bringing in legislation mandating election dates and then be the first to break the rules
Glenco
Senior Member
One thing we can be certain of is she will make the wrong decision
SarcasticMarmot
Active Member
They already did, moved the election date and extra 6 months out to extend this term.
MacLac
Senior Member
Of course Smitty is “saddended” to hear about this guy…..how about keeping your own house in order before you lament the death of a fellow Conservative MAGA extremist? !
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